From the Roman Empire to the Cold War, the Middle East has long not been master of its own fate but so often instead been a battleground for forces from across the globe.
So it is that now, amid the chaotic unpredictability of the current era, Israel must look across the Atlantic to try and divine what the next few years hold for the region.
Exactly what shape that future will take may depend not only on President Donald Trump but also the competing visions of the competing heirs hoping to take power in Washington eventually.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is increasingly viewed across the region as the driving force behind what could become a historic agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Meanwhile vice-president JC Vance represents a very different American posture – taking jabs at Israel and willing to an pursue understanding with Iran’s bloodthirsty regime.
His defenders might suggest that is no more than pragmatism in defence of US economic interests.
But there are many observers in the Middle East who will privately air their view of Vance’s flexibility with the Islamic Republic as a sign of weakness.
“Deal with the devil” or “surrender deal” they call it.
Which way will America go, the Middle East asks. Which of these two vaunted Republican sons will triumph?
The past few days have highlighted the stark dissonance between the Vance and Rubio strategies.
Many of Washington’s Middle Eastern partners have been digesting with considerable dismay the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Tehran shaped by the vice president.
Then, just before Shabbat, Rubio announced an historic agreement between two countries long trapped by Iran’s proxy war.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun described it as a first step towards restoring his nation’s sovereignty and dignity.
He and his people desperately hope for some kind of recovery from years of isolation and economic crisis.
Marco Rubio (C, back) looks on as Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter, State Department Chief of Staff Daniel Holler, and Lebanese Ambassador to the US Nada Hamadeh sign agreement in Washington, DC, on June 26, 2026. (SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty)AFP via Getty Images
But most of all they wish to be freed from the shackles imposed on Lebanon by Iran and its proxy militia Hezbollah.
This is a nation that has been held captive for almost 40 years.
Thus, welcome though the deal is for Lebanon and Israel, its significance extends far wider across the region.
Here is a clear signal of a determination to rein in Iran’s proxy forces and the “head of the snake” itself in Tehran.
Success will be a vindication for the Rubio camp’s push to reduce Iran’s influence – contrasting with the apparently more restrained approach of Vance.
For the first time in years, the agreement places Israel and the Lebanese state on the same strategic side, with Hezbollah as the common enemy.
Both have an interest in a sovereign state that controls its own territory and prevents terrorists from dragging the country into war. Iran spent decades building Hezbollah as its most successful proxy.
If Beirut becomes the recognised guarantor of security in southern Lebanon, Tehran loses not just territory but its principal means of projecting power against Israel. In the 14-point framework agreement, Israel and Lebanon both “affirm” the right of each state to “live in peace” and express a “mutual desire to live in security as neighbouring sovereign states”.
That makes the agreement a victory for the Lebanese state, and of course for Israel.
When another Iranian proxy, Hamas, crossed over from Gaza and massacred 1,200 men, women and children on October 7, Hezbollah launched its own terror campaign against Israel.
The prolonged campaign of continual rocket bombardment rendered large parts of the north uninhabitable.
The IDF answered with intensive air strikes across Lebanon before sending ground forces into the south of the country.
Attempts to halt the fighting failed over and over again, even following the devastating Israel intelligence pager plot in September 2024 which eliminated most of the Hezbollah leadership.
A ceasefire negotiated by Washington in April collapsed within weeks.
Now an entirely new chapter may have opened.
If this deal works, it is a strategic defeat for Iran. Hezbollah is no longer cast as a force of “resistance”, but as the chief obstacle to Lebanese sovereignty.
The question now is whether the Lebanese people can finally reclaim their country. Despite the UN’s presence, Hezbollah was able to rearm largely unhindered. Unifil failed in its core mission of preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament in southern Lebanon, critics claim.
At this moment it remains unclear whether Hezbollah will agree to withdraw its fighters from the area south of the Litani River. They have already sworn retribution.
Hezbollah has long been effectively sovereign over the territory of the south: the latest evidence is the discovery of the terror militia’s 200m-long tunnel in the town of Majdal Zoun, packed with hundreds of weapons and launchers but now destroyed by Israeli forces.
According to international legal expert Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, President and Founder of Israel NGO Shurat HaDin Law Centre: “For the first time, Lebanon is effectively accepting an ongoing Israeli security role within its territory, while testing whether the Lebanese Armed Forces can finally fulfil their long-standing obligations: to disarm Hezbollah and assume control over areas from which Israeli forces have expelled Hezbollah operatives.
“Whether this process succeeds remains to be seen. But if it does, the most significant diplomatic development to emerge from the war may not be the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding – it may be the unprecedented security and political understandings now taking shape between Israel and Lebanon.”
But in Lebanon the fear is that the Iranian regime will try to keep Hezbollah in whatever way they can.
One Lebanese source told the JC: “The government needs to diminish Hezbollah’s influence, not only through its arms but also through the services it provides.
“This requires building a strong state with strong institutions and social provisions.
“It also requires tackling corruption.
“Israel has realised it cannot stay there forever, and it cannot exterminate Hezbollah, even militarily.
“And vice versa: Iran realises Hezbollah cannot remove Israel. Ideologically, however, they will continue to pursue that goal.
“So now the ball is in the hands of the Lebanese government to prove it can do its duty, and it is in the hands of its international friends – primarily Washington – to support the Lebanese government, pressure Israel to cooperate, and ensure the ceasefire agreement is not broken.
“No matter how many weapons you give Hezbollah, they cannot liberate the land. They have seen their military limitations.
“Hezbollah’s reaction to the agreement has been mediocre. They do not seem willing to cause significant problems... at least not yet.
“It’s not all gloom. Once again, the Lebanese government needs to do its own homework.”
For Benjamin Netanyahu, the agreement also represents a significant win ahead of the elections – a much-needed boost for the prime minister to offset his poor numbers in recent polls.
But Israeli officials have sounded a note of caution to the JC, saying they believe they have made significant concessions and it will be some time before the security situation is anywhere near stable enough for a full withdrawal from Lebanon.
Under the agreement, Israel will withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring them to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
“It’s a pilot system,” one source said. “Trump and the Americans are pushing very hard for Israel to get out of Lebanon because it undermines the Iran deal.”
Time will tell whether the arrangement holds.
An Israeli source familiar with the talks warned that Jerusalem expects Hezbollah to attempt to derail the agreement.
The source told the JC: “In Israel, the assumption is that Hezbollah will now try to hit Israel harder because they don’t want the agreement. This is what Israel is preparing for,”
A military official told me Israel believes it remains one step ahead of Hezbollah, adding: “We know they’re trying to rearm, and we know they’re asking for more equipment because they are short of supplies.
“We know they’re missing a lot of equipment and are trying to replenish it.”
Washington is feeling the pressure, with rising concern that continued tensions between Israel and Hezbollah will undermine its wider peace deal with Iran.
Yet, there are those across the Gulf who are entirely unconvinced by the US’s broader Iran strategy and might even be relieved if the MOU collapses.
One Emirati source told the JC: “The UAE is not happy with the deal as it currently stands. This was made explicitly clear to Rubio.
“We strongly rejected Iranian control or operation of the Straits – this will never be accepted.
“We also cannot understand why it fails to address Iran-armed militias in Iraq and Yemen.
“The level of danger in the region has risen exponentially.”
The UAE source warned the US administration that Iran is likely to use their other proxy, the Houthis to start attacking Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks.
That would be a devastating development for the Vance realpolitik doctrine.
And If Lebanon succeeds where previous governments failed and recovers sovereignty from Hezbollah, Rubio’s vision will be vindicated.
But if the terror militia survives intact, the Republican inheritance may yet pass to the Vance wing of the party, in which case Israel will have to contemplate chilly future relations with the US come the 2028 elections.
Either way, the future of the Middle East lies inside the Washington beltway.
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