Draped along the edge of a hill overlooking the Hula Valley, the Israeli village of Metula occupies what appears to be an inadvisable position.
Just 300 yards from its community hall, past the security fence marking the border with Lebanon to the north, flutters a yellow Hizbollah flag.
“It was not planted as a military act,” says Sarit Zehavi, who served in the IDF Northern Command’s intelligence unit for 14 years. “Hizbollah stopped marking its positions with flags after the 2006 war. It was more of a gesture, just to tell the Israelis that it is alive and kicking.”
Still, if the residents of Metula squint into their binoculars they may be able to spot the odd Hizbollah operative, identifiable by the fact they are carrying a weapon.
There are very few other visible signs of the Shia army, whose members no longer wear uniforms when active near the Israeli border. “They are a highly professional army, and have learnt a lot. We say that Hizbollah is the teacher and Hamas is the student,” said Mrs Zehavi.
Although there have been only 20 incidents involving Hizbollah since 2006, Israeli military planners are keen to stress that the Shia force remains the most significant threat to Israel.
“The biggest danger we face is the mix of Hizbollah and an Iranian artillery corps on our northern border. It is the most lethal combination of capability and intent. We are not just talking about employment but deployment,” said Assaf Orion, a former head of strategic planning in the IDF.
The widespread IDF view is that Hizbollah does not want a war now. Mrs Zehavi insisted, however, that “they are willing to take their chances if they get an opportunity… Hizbollah has 5,000 troops in the Galil. They could try to take Metula for just a few hours.”
From a lookout above Metula, three Lebanese villages are visible. Each contains several houses that have been designated by Hizbollah as rocket silos, with Iranian-made Fajr-5s stored “in or under” residential buildings.
Mrs Zehavi said: “Some of the villages are effectively military compounds, but people still live there. The reason why many don’t leave is mixed. Sometimes they believe they are protected by God, sometimes they believe Hizbollah when they say the Israelis will never attack. For others, it’s the fear that they will end up homeless like their cousins in Syria.”
To the east, across the Hula Valley and over the Golan Heights, in the foothills of Mount Hermon, the threats are less urgent, although no less severe.
Tel Saki, the fortified mound where 28 IDF troops hid out and were eventually saved during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, is only half a mile from the border with Syria.
Standing on the hillock, a huge plume of black smoke — likely to have been caused by an air strike, according to Mrs Zehavi — can be seen on the near horizon.
The area immediately beyond the border is held by the Yarmouk Martyrs’ Brigade, an affiliate of Daesh. Just beyond them is a strip controlled by another jihadi group, the Al Qaeda offshoot, Jabhat al-Nusra.
Further into Hauran — the volcanic plateau in southern Syria that includes the eastern side of the Golan Heights -—are the Free Syrian Army, then another area held by Jabhat al-Nusra. Beyond them again are Daesh, who are being pushed south following defeats against the Assad regime.
A senior military source said that these rival groups now appear to be settling down, consolidating their territory and even signing treaties and pacts.
“There is a stability arising on the other side of the Syrian border,” he said.
For now, with Hizbollah fully engaged in battling the many Sunni armies, and the multitude of warring rebel and jihadi groups still preoccupied with each other, Israel is in a short-term sweet spot.
Few Israeli military experts believe that this will last into the medium term, however.
The IDF source said: “Hizbollah is the major threat on the northern border, also because it brings the threat of the radical axis [Iran and its other proxies]. The global jihad will turn to Israel later, when they have time.”
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