Last week’s election was trailed by many observers as the most momentous in the history of Israel.
This is a nation where hyperbolic hysteria is often the norm in politics, but there was no doubting the monumental significance, as voters turned in their verdict on the government of Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time since October 7.
That appeared to be the core question as record numbers turned up at the polls last Tuesday: are you for or against Bibi? An expected landslide for the opposition failed to materialise. Instead, much to the disappointment of the left and the wider “change bloc”, it was Netanyahu’s Likud party that led the way, claiming 27 seats in the Knesset.
Not quite enough to form a governing coalition, but still ahead of the main rival, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party with just 21 seats.
The mathematics of Israeli politics is always befuddling, thanks to its distinctive form of proportional representation empowering parties with just 3.25 per cent of the vote. But what’s clear is there are no straightforward scenarios here to form a government.
If nothing works, another election in the next few months may lie ahead.
Yet for now complex negotiations are going on behind closed doors, and it is the Arab parties – Ra’am and the Joint List – who with 19 seats (out of a total of 120 in the Knesset) may have a critical role to play as potential kingmakers.
That means the prospect is now very different from what lay before voters last week.
Given that one of the leaders of the Joint List is Ahmad Tibi of the Ta’al party, wags say the question has become: Bibi – or Tibi?
Or to put it another way, a significant number of Jewish voters would rather see Arab parties helping to determine the next government than endure another term under Netanyahu.
Other, critical voices are asking what do the Arab parties want. At the most fundamental level, the question is: are they non-Zionist or antizionist? Simply indifferent to the belief in the existence of the Jewish state but pursuing a pragmatic agenda specific to the minority, or actively opposed to the ideology underpinning Israel since its foundation? Last Thursday, protesters gathered outside the Herzliya home of Eisenkot, urging Yashar to join forces with Arab parties to force Netanyahu out of power.
Chanting “There is no change without partnership”, demonstrators made their message clear.
A senior official in the Joint List told the JC that the result – 11 seats, alongside eight for Ra’am – had sparked celebrations across the community, with many voters eager to see the back of the ruling government and particularly far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The source said: “The atmosphere in the Arab street today is extremely optimistic. There are celebrations within the parties, and people are calling us to congratulate us on this achievement. Yes, it is an achievement, because we accomplished our goal: removing Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from power.”
The source argued that the election results had left the three politicians without a viable route back into government. Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 seats, eight short of the 61 needed for a majority. The opposition, meanwhile, also lacks the numbers to govern on its own.
While Eisenkot could potentially unseat Bibi with the support of Arab parties, doing so would require political compromises and overcoming resistance from some of his prospective partners. Avigdor Liberman, whose Yisrael Beytenu party secured seven seats, has ruled out joining a government dependent on Arab parties.
“Anyone who wants to rely on supporters of terrorism is welcome to do so. Yisrael Beytenu will not be part of it,” Liberman declared in a Facebook post last Friday.
His refusal presents a major obstacle for Eisenkot.
Without Liberman’s seven seats, the remaining Jewish-led opposition would have just 41. Even with the support of all 19 Arab MKs, it would reach only 60 seats: one short of an outright majority, although at that point a minority government could still be viable. The days following an election result that satisfied no one rapidly descended into political balagan (chaos) over the increasingly fraught question of who is prepared to sit with whom.
The prospect of Arab parties helping to determine Israel’s next prime minister has already triggered a bitter confrontation.
Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet, has been asked to examine allegations of foreign interference and electoral fraud following a sharp rise in turnout among Arab voters.
Qatari money was allegedly used to finance a covert campaign to increase support for Arab parties – a claim the Gulf state vociferously denies.
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