Official confirmation that Iran has enriched uranium to 84 per cent is likely to end the prospects of a nuclear deal, experts on the Islamic Republic and its weapons programmes have told the JC.
According to the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), the UN body that inspects Iran’s facilities, uranium “particles” just below the 90 per cent enrichment level considered “military grade” have been detected at Iran’s underground Fordow plant, which is built to withstand bunker-busting bombs.
The discovery prompted US Under Secretary of Defence Colin Kahl to warn that Tehran could now produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in under two weeks, comments that echoed remarks made last weekend by CIA chief William Burns.
The IAEA says Iran claims the very high enrichment level was “unintentional”.
But David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, told the JC the claim should be disregarded: “Enrichment to 84 per cent was no accident. They are clearly conducting experiments they are not telling the IAEA about, and that is not ok.”
Benjamin Netanyahu (Getty Images)
The technical difference between enriching uranium to 60 per cent, which Iran has been doing since 2021, and the 84 per cent detected now, is “not very great”, Albright said. In his view, Iran already had enough 60 per cent material to build three nuclear weapons within three months.
However, he went on, “the political difference is huge. It is a very big deal. The Biden administration has said that if they get to 90 per cent, that will be crossing a red line that will trigger action — the end of a search for the renewed deal, and the triggering of sanctions.”
Behnam ben Talebu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, said the finding was no surprise, for “incremental escalation is Tehran’s speciality”.
He told the JC: “Iran’s enrichment to this level — its highest recorded purity — is proof that Western pressure is not the driver of Iranian nuclear escalation. Iran’s dropping breakout timeline to just under two weeks requires understanding that the Islamic Republic is nearly, if not already, a nuclear threshold state.”
He added: “If enrichment to 84 per cent purity, the supply of Iranian drones to Russia, advances in Iranian rocketry and persistent rights violations at home is not enough to ditch the attempt to reach a new nuclear deal, what is?”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that history has shown that in the absence of a credible military threat or actual military action, Iran will become a nuclear power.
“The longer you wait, the harder that becomes [to prevent]. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
