When did Israel start planning Operation Roaring Lion? Go back to October 7

The largest air campaign in IDF history, which included an unprecedented 30 female pilots, was not only revenge for the worst attack on the Jewish state in its history.

Israel’s plan was conceived that very day, more than two years ago, when 1,200 men, women and children were murdered in cold blood.

From that moment, the government began preparing a response that has had several separate but related stages, all stemming out of the knowledge that the massacre was the work of a region-wide terror nexus that has its headquarters in Tehran.

Never mind the fury of payback: for Benjamin Netanyahu and his advisers there was a cold, steely determination to enforce the founding ethos of the Israel state: “Never again.” That meant the terror capability of Iran and its proxies had to be destroyed.

Israel first had to rid Hamas from Gaza, then dismantle Hezbollah before it could go after the “head of the snake”. That placed Khamenei and the mullahs firmly at the top of the hit list.

For Israel, it was simply about removing an unambiguously existential threat.

The terror onslaught of October 7 was a stark warning. Worse could come: What if Tehran had an atomic bomb?

Netanyahu’s ultimate goal was to rid the region of the nuclear programme of the Islamic Republic, a rogue state whose leaders have pledged to wipe Israel off the map.

The prime minister has long been determined to ensure Iran never acquires the bomb, in an unapologetic obsession going back many years.

Those who are around Netanyahu have heard him talk about the nuclear threat at almost every opportunity.

The plans for the attack on the Islamic Republic were already detailed and in an advanced state of development at the start of the year.

When thousands of protesters against the regime were massacred by IRGC henchmen in January, there was a determined acceleration by the US and Israel. Netanyahu visited President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida to discuss tactics and strategic coordination in depth.

A CIA tip-off to Mossad provided the final breakthrough on Khamenei’s whereabouts, reinforcing the closeness of American-Israeli intelligence cooperation and enabling the Supreme Leader and his entourage to be taken out in one fell swoop.

Future historians may long ponder why so many senior regime figures convened in one location at the same time, given that it was widely understood Israel closely tracked them all at every available opportunity, to the point of even hacking Tehran’s traffic cameras. Sources say Israel knew Tehran like they knew Jerusalem.

So it was that on Shabbat morning, Israelis were woken by piercing alerts on their phones urging them to take shelter, as the air campaign began more than 1,000 miles east in Tehran.

Israel carried out the strike, but it was Trump who announced it to the world in a post on Truth Social: “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead.”

The warning signs were there that war was coming. There had been little else that anyone had talked about for the past few weeks but the long-expected conflict, with the almost unparalleled deployment of US force in the Gulf signalling intent even while the ultimately fruitless negotiations with Tehran spluttered on.

Still, whatever had been anticipated, the reality was different, and as war broke out in truth many Israelis were in shock.

Multiple types of aircraft were deployed simultaneously in a complex and highly coordinated IAF operation.

Surface-to-air missile headquarters across Iran were struck in the opening phase of the campaign, executed according to precise operational planning and achieving initial objectives.

The scale and synchronisation by the US and Israel underscored just how long this moment had been in preparation between the allies.

During the 12-day war, Israel’s focus was on military and nuclear sites. This time the target set has expanded to the political echelon.

The objective was fundamentally different – to destroy the regime itself. The first 72 hours of any operation are crucial.

That’s why Israel started by going after the leadership in targeted killings, leaving the US with its greater firepower to do the heavy lifting when it comes to taking out military installations.

By day two of the operation, Israel’s officials were gleeful over the results. All of the leaders of Iran’s “axis of evil” had been eliminated. It was noted with particular relish that the list included every one on their rogues gallery hit list.

Iran retaliated almost immediately. The continual sorties of rockets and drones speaks of a “use or lose it” strategy: the Islamic Republic has an ever-shrinking window of opportunity before virtually all its launch sites are destroyed.

Although 90 per cent of the missiles have been intercepted, some will get through. Lives have been lost.

On Saturday, there were two dead in Tel Aviv. In Beit Shemesh on Sunday there was a direct hit on a shelter leaving nine dead.

The next day in Beersheba an Iranian missile evaded defences, claiming a total of at least ten wounded, in a town where four people had died in the 12-day war in June last year.

Even against the wider backdrop of Israel’s determination to take out an existential threat, the human cost cannot be ignored.

The deaths and injuries are the starkest reminder that though Israel has demonstrably the most advanced defence systems in the world, these will never provide absolute protection.

As the days progressed, Iran’s sheer desperation became apparent, striking Gulf states and even RAF bases in Cyprus – they had clearly miscalculated the strength of the joint fire and brain power of Jerusalem and Washington.

Israeli officials insist the goal is to remove any threat entirely in the current campaign. They do not want another round of conflict.

To be explicit, there is a genuine belief that Operation Roaring Lion can realistically be the final chapter in the history of the protracted hot-and-cold war between Israel and the Islamic Republic.

It is a goal shared by almost the entire country. The cumulative toll of the past few years has hardened public opinion and strengthened the belief that partial measures are no longer sufficient.

More than a thousand soldiers have lost their lives in the war in Gaza, in addition to the victims of October 7.

The deaths of Israelis in the past few days in indiscriminate attacks by missiles on civilian locations are war crimes that will only add to the public’s determination to see off the threat of the regime for good.

What happens next in large part rests on Tehran’s calculations and the limits of their capabilities. Continued, determined retaliation could widen the conflict, at least until their arsenal is exhausted.

America, for its part, is creating conditions for regime change, but officials stress that it will ultimately be up to the Iranian people to take the reins.

Amid the uncertainty, it’s clear the geopolitical landscape is being reshaped.

Iran lashing out to attack states across the Gulf has brought about the unthinkable: who, last week, would have thought Qatar would warn the Islamic Republic such aggression cannot not remain unanswered?

Then there is Saudi Arabia. Remember, it was the prospect of the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords that triggered the “hail Mary” of October 7 as Hamas feared the Palestinian question being marginalised for ever if Israel enjoyed normalised relations across the region.

Now, as IDF commanders talk to their Arab counterparts to coordinate intelligence and even forces over the past few days, the once unimaginable has re-emerged as a viable question. Is there an eventual pathway through to the magical Saudi accord?

What’s certain is that the Middle East will never be the same again.