Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile arsenal at a rate of around 50 weapons a month, despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes targeting its military infrastructure, according to a new Western intelligence assessment.
The country is believed to have at least 1,700 ballistic missiles remaining, with the latest figures suggesting its ability to manufacture weapons has recovered to approximately half its prewar capacity.
The assessment, reported by Bloomberg, raises questions about the extent to which the military campaign has weakened Tehran's ability to threaten Israel and other countries across the Middle East, particularly if fighting resumes.
It also comes as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has released footage purporting to show a newly constructed underground 'missile city', in an apparent demonstration of its continuing military capabilities.
The intelligence estimate contrasts with repeated statements from Washington that Iran's military infrastructure has suffered extensive damage.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that “more than 80 per cent of Iran’s nuclear industrial base is gone”, as he defended the results of American military operations.
However, a Western official familiar with military intelligence reports told Bloomberg that Tehran had retained a substantial missile inventory and continued producing weapons, despite the damage inflicted by the joint US-Israeli campaign which began on February 28.
Israel had estimated that Tehran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles before the conflict, while the number subsequently destroyed, fired or newly manufactured is not independently known.
Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow in the Department of War Studies at King's College London and a former CIA analyst specialising in Iran and the Middle East, said thousands of Shahed-type attack weapons could also remain in Iran's arsenal.
He warned that publicly available estimates of Tehran's remaining weapons were “all over the map”, reflecting the difficulty of establishing how many missiles had survived the airstrikes and how many had been manufactured since the fighting began.
Although the strikes have significantly weakened Iran's ability to manufacture weapons on a large scale, Lamson said existing reserves of missile components could allow the regime to continue assembling them.
According to Bloomberg Economics, Tehran has launched more than 4,900 Shahed propeller-driven strike weapons and at least 2,200 ballistic missiles since the conflict began.
The scale of those attacks has placed considerable pressure on the air-defence systems of the US and its regional allies.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that Iranian attacks have consumed at least 1,000 American Patriot PAC-3 interceptors. Each costs approximately $4 million, while production is currently around 650 annually.
Becca Wasser, Bloomberg Economics' defence lead, said: “It was never a direct contest between Iran and American missile stockpiles.
“The US outguns Iran, but Iran’s strategy requires just enough capability to disrupt, impose costs and endure.”
The potential scale of Tehran's remaining arsenal has also prompted renewed attention to its underground military infrastructure.
In footage published by the semi-official Fars news agency, IRGC commanders were shown inside what the organisation described as a new underground missile facility.
General Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, addressed personnel at the site, warning that further military developments could emerge in the event of renewed fighting.
“Surprises in a future war will be revealed one after the other,” he said.
The footage did not establish how many weapons the facility contained or where it was located. However, its release appeared intended to demonstrate that Iran retained the capacity to protect and deploy parts of its military arsenal.
Western intelligence officials have also reportedly said Russia is supplying strike weapons to Iran, although the quantities and types involved remain unclear.
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “The Iranians have likely reconstituted a substantial amount of drones and missiles.”
He added: “Given regional diplomatic efforts, they may focus on cost imposition on the United States and Israel.”
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