The Democratic party’s candidate has won the “kosher vote” in every presidential election since 1920 — and rarely has it been close. In only one election in the last century — in 1980 — has Jewish support for the Democrats fallen below 50 percent. And on only two other occasions — the Republican landslides of 1924 and 1984 — has it dropped under 60 percent.
Despite Ms Pipko’s claims, the long-term trends seem to be flowing against the Republicans: between 1972 and 1988, their presidential candidates won, on average, one-third of the Jewish vote. Since 1992, that has plummeted to just over one-fifth. But however lop-sided the Democrats’ string of victories, the Republicans have not conceded the battle. It’s not hard to see why.
Numerically small — they make up less than 2.5 percent of the US population — many Jews are clustered in states – such as New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California — which are solidly Democratic and far from the battleground where the election will be decided.
Nonetheless, academic observers suggest, Jews could potentially deliver a powerful electoral punch, not least because, at an estimated 80-85 percent, Jewish turnout is some 25-30 points higher than the national average. “Because of their concentration in a few states and their relative homogeneity in political outlook, Jewish voters are an important part of the electoral math, especially in states or districts that are considered competitive,” a recent analysis by staff at Brandeis University’s Steinhardt Social Research Institute argues. Nearly 1.5 million Jewish adults, it shows, live in the key swing states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania — in which the outcome of the presidential contest, and crucial battles which will decide which party controls the US Senate, will be determined.
In the Midwest battleground of Michigan – a state which Mr Trump won by just 11,000 votes in 2016 – there are 107,000 Jewish voters. Once-solidly Republican Georgia, where 103,000 Jews live, is now rated a “toss-up” by the RealClearPolitics website.
And in Arizona, home to 113,000 Jews, Mr Biden has an average three-percent lead in a state the president carried by just over three points in 2016. “In these competitive states, higher rates of voter turnout or greater support for the Democratic Party could make a critical difference in the outcome,” the Brandeis analysis of Jewish voting patterns concludes.
But it is on two states in particular – Florida and Pennsylvania — that most attention will be focused. The former has a history of being decided by razor-thin margins and the latter was won by Mr Trump by less than one percent of the vote in 2016.
This year, both the Trump and Biden campaigns view Pennsylvania as the must-win “tipping-point” state, while the president’s team are keenly aware that not since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has a Republican candidate captured the White House without securing Florida. The two are also the only battleground states where Jews as a percentage of the adult population are above the national average; Florida’s 722,00 Jews make-up four percent of the state’s population, while Pennsylvania’s 275,000-strong “kosher vote” constitutes nearly three percent of
the electorate.
Republican political strategists recognise that — in such tightly fought contests — their task is mainly to chip-away at the Democrats’ huge Jewish-vote margins.
As Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, told The Times of Israel earlier this month: “We don’t need a majority”. He pointed to Republican Florida governor Ron Desantis’ 32,000-vote victory in the 2018 mid-term elections which was secured “thanks in no small part to the Jewish community”.
There are undoubtedly some chinks in the Democrats’ armour for Republicans to exploit. Overall, Jews are nearly twice as likely as voters as a whole to identify their political orientation as liberal. However, in a survey conducted in January by the Nishma Research Institute, 65 percent of ultra-Orthodox Jews identified themselves as right-leaning. Polls conducted after the 2016 contest found that 54 percent of Orthodox Jews voted for Mr Trump, and last week’s AJC poll shows 74 percent planning to vote for his re-election
In September, the president’s campaign launched “Jewish Voices for Trump”, which is co-chaired by Las Vegas casino mogul and Republican mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, and began bombarding the airwaves in Florida and Pennsylvania with a new ad entitled “Abraham Accords”. Not to be outdone, the Democratic Majority for Israel has rolled-out an advert in swing states touting Mr Biden’s long-standing support for the Jewish state.
The former vice-president’s moderate record means that Republican attempts to tie him to a handful of what Mr Trump calls “radical left” anti-Israel Democrats in Congress appear to have gained little traction. The Jewish Electorate Institute’s September poll indicates why this may be so. It found that while 88 percent of Jewish voters self-identify as pro-Israel, it was among the lowest priorities when they were asked about the issues which will determine their vote. Moreover, by a 14-point margin they trust Mr Biden more than the president to handle US relations with the Jewish state. By contrast, 80 percent of Jewish voters said that the rise of antisemitism and white nationalism are very important issues to consider and nearly two-thirds said they trusted Mr Biden more to tackle Jew-hate. Most Jewish voters said they felt less secure than they did four years ago, with 56 percent saying they believe Jews will be less safe if Mr Trump is re-elected.
Overall, though, as for most Americans, it is domestic issues — the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, and healthcare — which top Jewish voters’ concerns and on each Mr Biden holds a substantial lead. Sixty-seven percent of Jews — around 15 points higher than the national average — disapprove of Mr Trump’s performance in office, 62 percent strongly so.
Mr Trump reportedly complained on a call with Jewish leaders last month that the Democrats get three-quarters of the Jewish vote “sort of like habit”.
But that throwaway remark ignores both the breadth and depth of the disapproval the president himself elicits among Jewish voters.
