Abdul el-Sayed’s chances of being elected in Michigan in Tuesday’s midterms are holding steady despite his “betrayal” by former primary opponent Hayley Stevens, according to “prediction market” firm Polymarket.
El-Sayed, a former public health administrator vying to become the US’ first-ever Muslim senator, and his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, were neck and neck as recently as mid-August, according to the market, with the former leading 56 per cent to 46 per cent.
The gap then opened to an 80-20 margin by the end of last month, but narrowed after Stevens’ intervention on Sunday.
Stevens, currently US Representative for the state’s 11th District, and el-Sayed faced off earlier in the year in an at times acrimonious primary race, during which they traded barbs over his positions on Israel and the financial support for her campaign from pro-Israel advocacy groups.
She initially said she would campaign with el-Sayed on Friday, but switched her endorsement to Rogers over the weekend, prompting backlash from her party colleagues.
Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, accused her of a “despicable betrayal,” adding that “Senate Democrats are united in our support for Abdul el-Sayed”.
Likewise, Curtis Hertel, chairman of the state’s Democratic Party, said: “We reject the attempts by Stevens and bad-faith actors to divide our party and undermine our momentum, and will not allow these 11th-hour distractions to deter us.”
But Polymarket’s data suggests that Steven’s about-turn may not have had a long-term impact on el-Sayed’s campaign.
While the margin narrowed to 70-30 in the hours after her endorsement of Rogers, it had opened back up to 80-20 by the morning of polling day.
Meanwhile, an average of the last 11 polls by election site 270ToWin recorded a 50 per cent to 44 per cent margin in favour of el-Sayed.
The tightest poll of those still had it 47-46 to el-Sayed with a margin of error of 2.6 per cent.
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