What is Israel’s long-term strategy in Gaza?

Gefen told JNS that a new approach had been under consideration in Israel for months. He explained that while Hamas anticipates a ceasefire that would allow it to regroup, Israel envisions a drastically different future for Gaza.

“Israel sees a completely different picture. Israel does not see Hamas in power. Hamas still doesn't understand what this means from Israel's perspective. It means something very similar to the situation in southern Lebanon, where Hamas will not be able to carry out any action without an Israeli response,” said Gefen.

To help achieve this, Israel is focusing on the separation of Hamas from the Gazan populace, beginning with aid, and moving on to the entire economic situation, which Hamas will not be allowed to be a part of.

"The Israeli government, together with regional partners headed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the United States, want to cause all of these issues—the construction, and humanitarian aid, and medical aid, and then continuous fuel and water assistance, to be carried out using different mechanisms—away from Hamas. And importantly, to do this for years. This is not a three to four-month operation," he added.

This vision also includes the possibility of facilitating the departure of Gazans who wish to leave, said Gefen, though he expressed doubt that it would happen at the scale envisioned by US President Donald Trump.

"One of the things Israel is doing, and will increasingly do, is to open its borders via Ramon Airport. Another way is to enable Gazans to leave. Those who want to leave can leave. This is part of the pressure [on Hamas]," Gefen stated.

A key component of this revised approach involves utilising international private companies to distribute aid. Gefen described a process where Israel would securely deliver aid to a certain point, from which a civilian company, equipped for self-defence, would manage distribution to local Gazans.

Professor Uzi Rabi, senior researcher and the head of the program for Regional Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS that the idea of involving private companies "is a solution that removes direct responsibility for distribution from the IDF – something that reduces direct friction with the Palestinian population, and indicates that Israel allows the flow of aid while avoiding direct involvement”.

However, this specific tactic was a point of disagreement between the IDF General Staff and the Security Cabinet. According to a report by Mako News, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir expressed concerns in cabinet discussions about the IDF directly handling aid distribution, a position also held by his predecessor, Herzi Halevi.

The Mako report indicated that defence officials, including the defence minister, Israel Katz, preferred alternatives like international companies for aid distribution. Zamir is reportedly concerned about avoiding making soldiers targets "as they carry sacks of rice for the residents of Gaza".

Regarding the chief of staff's stance, Rabi said his "public opposition stems from the concern that IDF soldiers will become a 'stationary target' during aid distribution. This is a tactical disagreement, not one of principle”.

Rabi added: “Hopefully this is a [passing] episode because if not, it could indicate a rift. The future will tell.”

Beyond the aid, Israel’s fundamental security doctrine is undergoing a dramatic shift, said Gefen. He highlighted a move away under Zamir from the approach championed by Halevi, of defensive combat.

"The Israeli policy along all the borders is changing completely," Gefen said.

"The Minister of Defence said yesterday that the army will be a buffer between the threats and the Israeli population so that a similar situation [to October 7, 2023] does not happen, and therefore we will see an offensive campaign, not a defensive one,” Gefen stated.

“It's not about standing with fortifications and waiting to be attacked. Rather, every threat – in the Strip...[in the West Bank], in Lebanon and in Syria is attacked all the time."

Gefen argued that Gaza's longer-term possibilities include massive reconstruction efforts after Hamas is removed from power, which could be led by regional powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, with American involvement.