The move, as well as the addition of a new metric, will likely make it easier for the agency to declare a famine in the Strip compared to in other parts of the world
August 13, 2025 12:26
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a UN-backed watchdog for global malnutrition rates, has reportedly lowered the threshold required to declare a famine in Gaza in its latest report.
The agency issued an “alert” in July, saying that “the worst-case scenario of famine is playing out in Gaza”.
It cited its own analysis of May 12, reporting that “a risk of famine was detected in all areas of the Gaza Strip”, which was subsequently quoted by media outlets including the BBC, ABC and New York Times.
The IPC is generally regarded as a reliable and respected source for determining whether a famine is taking place in a given region, relying on extensive research by a network of governments and NGOs, as well as the UN.
However, the July alert included data based on an apparently new metric – the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of Gazan children – as an indicator of malnutrition. According to the Washington Free Beacon “the agency has not historically used [this metric] to determine whether a famine is taking place”.
The Beacon reported: “Aid workers traditionally conduct detailed weight and height measurements to determine whether a child is suffering from acute malnutrition.
"MUAC, by contrast, consists only of a child's arm circumference, a measurement that can be done more quickly and is considered less precise.”
While it has used this measurement before, it also made it one of its key indicators of famine.
Previously, the factors required for a famine classification was the combination 20 per cent of households facing an “extreme lack of food”, 30 per cent of children suffering from acute malnutrition and the “non-trauma deaths” of either two adults or four children per 10,000 of population per day.
However, per the Beacon, the child malnutrition threshold was lowered from 30 per cent to 15 per cent if their MUAC measurements showed them to be suffering from “acute malnutrition” combined with “evidence of rapidly worsening underlying drivers of malnutrition”. The IPC has denied the Beacon’s report.
A source from within the aid sector told the Beacon that this constituted a “pretty big shift” in the IPC’s standards, claiming the agency is “lowering the bar, or trying to make it easier for the famine determination to be made”.
Another pointed to previous famine declarations in areas like South Sudan and Somalia, claiming: “In all of the famines that have been declared, they've been using the 30 per cent global malnutrition measurement, most of which have been based on the weight-for-height metric – which, again, is much harder to collect, much more burdensome, and it's 30 per cent.
"So, this asterisk that's been added for Gaza essentially says that they're going to allow a 15 per cent global malnutrition rate measured by MUAC.
"I think many people would say it's like lowering the bar or making it more possible, essentially, to declare whatever it is that they're going to declare.”.
According to an explanation provided to the JC by the IPC “the statement that the IPC changed its protocols is completely false”.
The agency said: “For the IPC, “widespread acute malnutrition” refers to situations where at least 30 per cent of children aged six to 59 months have a weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) below -2 standard deviations or oedema. In the absence of WHZ data (which is the case of Gaza), widespread acute malnutrition may be identified when at least 15 per cent of children aged 6–59 months have a Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) below 125 mm or oedema.
"The MUAC metric has been accepted for famine classification since 2019, when the IPC Technical Manual Version 3.0 was released. This is also outlined in the current IPC Technical Manual v3.1, which explicitly allows acute malnutrition to be measured using at least three outcome indicators: Weight-for-Height Z-score (WHZ), Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC), or Body Mass Index (BMI).
"Since these indicators measure relatively different dimensions, their thresholds are all different.”
The explanation went on: “In fact, MUAC is often the metric used in famine classifications because it is the measurement most frequently available and has a strong correlation with mortality outcomes. MUAC has been used in famine classifications in South Sudan in the report published in November 2020 and in the Sudan report published in December 2024. These same protocols were consistently applied in all previous IPC analyses for Gaza.
"Therefore, the use of MUAC in the July Alert does not represent a “lowered threshold” nor “a quiet change” in IPC methodology, and instead demonstrates the continued application of established IPC standards.
"Regarding the claim that the IPC "Famine Fact Sheet" makes no mention of MUAC; The famine factsheet is an educational outreach product used to explain the basics of the famine definition. It is not meant to be a comprehensive technical document. The difference between WHZ and MUAC is very technical and is clearly explained in the IPC Technical Manual.
"However, the IPC has recently received requests for clarification from several professional news agencies to better understand these specific points. This resulted in the IPC adjusting the diagram that explains famine thresholds by adding a reference to the GAM by MUAC threshold to address their inquiries and requests.”
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