The dizzying speed of change to the regional geopolitical map brought about by the war against Iran is like nothing else even in Israel’s tumultuous history.
Rather like the White Queen in Alice Through The Looking Glass who believed six impossible things before breakfast, what was once simply unthinkable has now become the norm.
Nowhere is this more evident than in Israel’s neighbour to the north. Even the old hands in Jerusalem’s corridors of power are drop-jawed over the transformation in Lebanon. A country that has long been in fearful thrall to the whims of extremists is beginning to throw off the shackles imposed by the Islamic Republic.
Simply put, Hezbollah is a meagre, hollowed-out vestige of the once renowned militia. However hated the Shia army and its civilian wing may have been over the decades, it commanded respect. Within Lebanon, the government had only nominal power and was laughably weak against Tehran’s disciplined proxy.
Israel meanwhile maintained a grudging regard for Hezbollah’s military capability and huge arsenal of ballistic missiles.
No longer. The exploding pager operation in 2024 had already cut away vast swathes of Hezbollah command, not only top tier but all the way down, through to the most junior ranks.
The past few days have exposed how that once-feared arsenal is now utterly denuded. All that remains operational, it seems, are short-range and medium-range capabilities, along with a growing number of drones.
With all that said, Hezbollah has quietly used the ceasefire lull to rebuild and rearm – and joined Iran in launching rockets at Israel on day two. Israel has responded with air strikes, but the IDF has held back from a fuller response.
The reason for this restraint is strategic: they are trying, with American backing, to help and support the Lebanese government.
For the first time in many years, there are signs of internal resistance to Hezbollah within Lebanon. In an unprecedented move, the authorities have already outlawed Hezbollah military activity. Civilians who have been forcibly evacuated are open in their criticism of Hezbollah to a degree that is simply staggering. Effectively cut off from the direction and supplies of their Tehran paymasters, their power is diminished, and so is their ability to instil fear.
The US and Israel want a government in Lebanon strong enough to truly rule in its own right. That scenario is some way off, but the hope is meaningful dialogue and reconstruction now will pave the way to get there. Things are moving fast and sources tell me that the Lebanese government now wants to negotiate with Israel directly.
Thus the IDF is holding back from wreaking the levels of destruction in Lebanon which would only undermine that hoped-for future. Critical infrastructure targets are largely off the table. Jerusalem sources suggest Israel is being selective on targets and careful not to harm the Lebanese government or civilians.
The potential is fragile but real: care is being taken to help ensure Lebanon’s civilian government will be allowed to rebuild this war-torn land.
Militarily, Iran is the priority. Lebanon is viewed as the secondary front for now. A division of forces between the two arenas is expected but expect Lebanon to go on far longer.
Elsewhere, the region’s power map is changing by the hour, with shockwaves rippling out from the full force of a joint US-Israel onslaught.
With Tehran battered from the skies almost incessantly, the regime’s Revolutionary Guards are lashing out like a wounded beast. Their wild air strikes across the Gulf and beyond may have been an attempt to target America’s military bases, but the result is that Arab states which were once considered friendly to the Islamic Republic are now themselves dotted with impact craters from Iranian missiles.
Iran really misread the room. Its attempt to widen the conflict has only pushed regional powers closer together. Intelligence sharing is now helping Gulf states. Tehran appears to be pushing for a wider war — but, for now, others are holding back, refusing to give Iran the escalation it wants.
Nothing embodies the mad, looking-glass nature of this historic moment more than Qatar.
The Gulf state notoriously sheltered the leaders of Hamas, the Iran-backed terror group responsible for October 7.
Yet now, incredibly, Qatar is publicly denouncing the Islamic Republic over its missile attacks and threatening to respond.
In a further stunning twist, Israeli air strikes are now taking out ballistic missile launchers aimed at Gulf states.
But the stranger-than-fiction story of the past few days goes far further. Israel and CENTCOM – US Central Command – are closely co-operating to help Gulf states track and respond to the threat.
What appears to be emerging is nothing less than a brand new regional order, a makeshift, NATO-like defence alliance to counter not only Iran and its nuclear ambitions but the wider, ongoing threat from extremists.
One well-placed Bahraini observer believes these common threats are accelerating the normalisation of Israel in the region.
The source said: “Each state has sovereignty and will decide independently, but I believe others will join the Abraham Accords in time, especially as destabilising players disappear.
“Israel already has direct ties with Bahrain and the UAE but that normalisation took decades. I see the accords now expanding over the next few years, starting with economic ties and building on shared interests.”
There’s even talk of an Israel-Saudi accord now being back on the table, after the hopes that followed the first normalisation deals in 2020 petered out under the Biden administration.
This all comes with the caveat that the region’s leaders are known for saying one thing in public and the opposite behind closed doors. Actions truly do speak louder than words in the Middle East when it comes to Israel, particularly when they arise from cooperation based on shared self-interest, now and in the future.
Regional politics in the coming years will depend upon the fundamental question of whether the Islamic Republic could fall. Behind the scenes, long-suppressed forces are queuing up.
Brutally repressed by the regime for decades, the Kurds have built ties with Israel as well as Western intelligence. This is a friendship with mutual benefits.
For Israel, supporting the Kurds has long provided far-reaching and expedient leverage and intelligence, everywhere from Syria and Turkey to Iran and Iraq.
For the Kurds, Israel offers support against existential threats, particularly the hostility shown by Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria towards the national autonomy they have pursued for so long.
Who can better understand their persecution than the world’s only Jewish state?
The Kurds are unequivocal in their demands: equal rights, if not outright statehood, and the fall of the hated Revolutionary Guards.
With Israel launching deep-strike operations inside Iran, Kurdish resistance movements say they are poised to send in fighters on foot into Tehran. Sources say some are already inside the Islamic Republic and ready to go into action.
One Kurdish fighter speaking on the phone from close to the border said he could not wait to take the fight to the Revolutionary Guards and help bring about the regime’s downfall.
He said: “We love Israel, we love Netanyahu. The regime has never been weaker. We want to finish the job.
“They say the Islamic Republic is now at its weakest point.”
He said he believes its collapse is “inevitable” if the US-Israel airstrikes continue and a ground offensive supported by Kurdish and Arab opposition groups is launched.
He added: “No totalitarian or dictatorial regime lasts forever. Saddam. Hitler. Mussolini. Ali Khamenei and so many others before him. They are all gone.”
Who can gainsay his hopes? Nothing can be ruled out in a Middle East changing as fast as the landscape in a desert storm.
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