JC Israel Briefing Day 615: Will Israel pull the trigger on Iran?

Five key points on Iran developments:

Washington is withdrawing non-essential staff from its Baghdad embassy and has authorised the exit of military families from several Gulf bases. The move followed credible threats from Iran to retaliate militarily if Western powers escalate pressure on its nuclear program.

NBC has reported that Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear sites without US support, citing five sources briefed on the plans. According to the report, the IDF is ready to act in the coming days, and Israeli officials believe the window for action is closing as Iran rebuilds its air defences.

Axios has reported that Trump privately urged Netanyahu not to carry out military strikes that could derail nuclear talks with Tehran. US officials fear Israeli action could shatter diplomatic efforts, which remain stalled over uranium enrichment rights and inspection demands.

The UN nuclear watchdog is expected to vote today on a resolution censuring Iran for obstructing years of inspections. Western diplomats in Vienna said the measure has strong support among IAEA board members. Tehran has warned of “severe consequences” if the resolution passes.

Iranian officials have threatened to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty if Western powers reimpose full sanctions under the snapback mechanism. The NPT is a global agreement that restricts countries from developing nuclear weapons. Leaving it would end foreign oversight.

Elsewhere, Netanyahu is reportedly looking to explore a peace process with Syria. Netanyahu asked US envoy Tom Barrack to open direct peace talks with Syria’s new government, Axios reported, citing Israeli officials. The request marks the first such diplomatic initiative between the two countries since 2011, and follows secret backchannel exchanges with Damascus.

The Axios report comes as Syria’s new leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, met US officials in Damascus, reopened the ambassador’s residence, and signalled willingness for direct talks with Israel. Barrack confirmed al-Sharaa’s interest in starting with a non-aggression pact.

Hamas planned to seize Israeli schoolchildren on October 7 but was stopped hours before, internal memos show. Intelligence recovered from militants and revealed yesterday included marked maps of elementary schools in the western Negev and communications referencing preselected apartments for holding hostages.

Israeli forces shot dead two Palestinian terror suspects in a Nablus raid. The operation targeted a militant cell believed to be preparing a coordinated shooting in central Israeli cities.

Finally, Netanyahu appears to have averted a coalition collapse after ultra-Orthodox parties accepted a sanctions-based draft deal. The agreement halted a bill to dissolve Knesset.

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