Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, has claimed that Iranians are poised to topple their government but require “external assistance”.
Speaking to the Times of Israel amid ongoing Israeli strikes on Tehran, Sa’ar said: “Ultimately, we cannot topple the regime, only the Iranian people can.
"At the same time, we must say that without external assistance they have no chance to topple the regime.”
And, while insisting that regime change was not an official war aim, he did say: “We reached the conclusion that an effort must be made to create the conditions that allow for regime change – not by our hands but by the Iranian people.”
His comments followed those of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who called on ordinary Iranians to rise up in an X post on Tuesday, urging them to “create the conditions for [them] to grasp [their] destiny”.
"When the time is right, and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you," he added.
However, Reuters suggested on Thursday that a “multitude” of US intelligence reports suggest that the regime is unlikely to fall during the war.
Per the news agency, these reports present “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” and that it “retains control of the Iranian public”.
It comes after the New York Times, citing Iranian and Israeli officials, reported that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, suffered a severe injury to his leg in the opening week of the war.
This was apparently confirmed by Iranian state media, which, in announcing Khamenei’s appointment to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike last week, described the 56-year-old as “janbaz”, a Farsi term for soldiers injured in war.
Khamenei’s appointment was confirmed by the Assembly of Experts - a selection panel made up of 88 senior clerics - on Sunday evening.
In ideological terms, Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, has described Mojtaba as "like his father - only on steroids". Having joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the notorious paramilitary group responsible for enforcing Islamic rule under the regime, at 17, he fought in the Habib bin Muzahir Battalion.
After his military service, he went on to study as a cleric at the "deeply conservative" Qom Shia Seminary, before joining the Office of the Supreme Leader.
But he retained close links with the IRGC and, in 2009, he assumed command of the Basij, one of its five branches.
In this role he was widely blamed for the brutal suppression of protests against the outcome of the 2009 presidential elections after opposition parties claimed the vote had been rigged.
Likewise, according to a leaked IRGC report seen by Aarabi, Mojtaba played a "crucial role in commanding the violent suppression of Iranian civilians in the recent anti-regime protests", which left at least 7,000 people dead.
Following his father’s death, he was believed to be the IRGC’s preferred candidate, despite his father reportedly asking for him to be removed from the running as he felt a system of hereditary succession was too similar to the monarchy that ruled Iran prior to the revolution.
To get more Israel news, click here to sign up for our free Israel Briefing newsletter.