From Lebanon and Iran to Gaza, three sets of talks to define Israel’s future

With the imposition of the ceasefire, Iran and its cheerleaders in the West attempted to claim victory because the regime survives in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic’s detractors couldn’t help but be reminded of the Black Knight in Monty Python And The Holy Grail, who, left badly maimed with all his limbs hacked off but refusing to admit defeat, cries out: “Come back here, I’ll bite your legs off.”

Still, anyone expecting a swift resolution to the war from two days of talks had misunderstood the scale of the task.

Remember, the nuclear deal between Iran and the US took a year and a half of grinding diplomacy before arriving at the elaborate can-kicking exercise known as the JCPOA in 2015. In any event, whatever hopes there may have been for the discussions in Islamabad rapidly proved ill-founded.

“They have not chosen to accept our terms,” US Vice President and lead negotiator JD Vance said bluntly, and that was that.

Away from the wider war, there are the discussions in Lebanon.

Israel says Beirut had approached them several times in the past month to explore direct peace talks – something that has rarely happened before – under conditions that Hezbollah be disarmed and a lasting peace deal secured.

The terror militia that is Iran’s puppet has been dealt repeated blows that together have claimed a devastating toll: the killing of Hassan Nasrallah; the ingenious exploding pager operation that hit thousands of Hezbollah operatives; the destruction of most of the group’s vast missile stockpile in hours; the dismantling of a vast network of tunnels; a planned cross-border invasion by Radwan fighters whose aim was to take the Galilee utterly thwarted.

A fireball rises from a building hit by an Israeli airstrike in the area of Abbasiyeh, on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre (Photo by Kawnat HAJU / AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images

All this had been achieved without European support – and, at times, despite it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used his Holocaust Remembrance Day address to deliver a scathing assessment of Europe, as Israel marked the ceremony in a pre-recorded event at Yad Vashem.

In his speech, Netanyahu said Europe today is “afflicted by deep moral weakness,” adding that Israel is defending the continent “which has forgotten so much since the Holocaust.” He accused Europe of “losing control of its identity, of its values, of its responsibility to defend civilisation against barbarism.”

An Israeli government official told the JC that Emmanuel Macron had attempted to involve himself diplomatically in the Lebanon talks but was informed that the French Premier’s role was considered irrelevant. The official added that Israel views the UK in similar terms.

Beyond Europe, what we now learn is that the IDF operations have been welcomed by some of the Lebanese people – those who have had enough of Hezbollah. Sources in Lebanon say at least half the population want to see the terror militia removed, so that the long-troubled country can at last emerge from decades of domination from Iran’s proxy force to the point of near-ruin.

The historic talks between Israel and Lebanon are being mediated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and will include the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington and the US ambassador to Beirut. These are early days, but the ambition is immense. Could the Levant nation one day be the latest addition to the Abraham Accords?

Jerusalem insists that nothing is unthinkable, however far-fetched it may seem now.

In the shorter term, the imperative is to restore peace and security in the north and reclaim those parts of Israel that had long been effectively lost to constant Hezbollah bombardment, resulting in the forcible displacement of many thousands of families.

Meanwhile, Gaza has been all but forgotten at least temporarily by man in the international community but not in Israel.

The limits of the so-called Board of Peace to enforce outcomes on the ground are becoming increasingly clear in the absence of hard power, leaving a growing question over how long Israel can allow events to drift.

That was dramatically brought to light just days ago, as Hamas continued a long run of breaching promised commitments, missing its deadline to disarm.

What will happen without hard power to enforce agreements?

It’s not only Israel asking how long the situation can be allowed to go on.

For months Palestinian sources inside Gaza have said their greatest fear is Hamas rearming and regrouping.

Now that’s exactly what they see happening, and they fear nothing will change.

The situation again highlights the growing distance from Europe. Netanyahu recently expelled Spain from the Gaza strategy centre after its government’s increasingly strident anti-Israel stance. The prime minister declared: “Israel will not remain silent… Spain has defamed our heroes, the soldiers of the IDF, the soldiers of the most moral army in the world.”
He added: “Those who attack the State of Israel instead of terrorist regimes will not be our partners regarding the future of the region.”

Before the talks in Pakistan unravelled, the sudden ceasefire had arrived as a high-velocity political curveball for Benjamin Netanyahu to contend with.

For a moment, Israel’s prime minister was on the back foot, facing a new set of challenges on both the international stage and the domestic front.

But even his most fervent opponents have learnt you must never underestimate Netanyahu: there’s a reason the veteran statesman has been nicknamed “The magician” who always seems to find a way to flip things around when the chips are down.

Bibi rapidly composed himself and recaptured the narrative in a formidably composed statement to the nation. Iran threatened Israel with destruction — and now, Netanyahu said, it’s Islamic Republic which is fighting to survive.

A prime minister who has devoted much of his life to preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb insisted Israel had finally shattered the “barrier of fear” by striking directly inside Iran.

Answering those who demanded justification for the war that has left millions of Israelis repeatedly running to their shelters every night for almost two months, Netanyahu said years of warnings to the world had gone unheeded as some dismissed the danger of a nuclear-armed regime. Intelligence showed Tehran was moving to turn enriched uranium into bombs, as well as build vast missile stockpiles capable of raining hundreds of rockets a day on the Jewish state.

Whether or not the war resumes, Israel says the campaign has already devastated Iran’s military leadership, security apparatus and key industries, leaving the regime at its weakest point in decades and its nuclear programme effectively crushed.

Whatever the outcome, his impassioned political opponents have been warned by sources close to Netanyahu’s inner circle: he will never quit.

His eye is very much on the ball of the looming elections that are at most months away, with his only thought – as in war – of victory.

His inner circle testify to an almost unique ability to take the pressure and remain unfazed by the “balagan” – the Hebrew word for chaos – that surrounds Israeli politics and has consumed so many of his rivals.

Instead, Netanyahu positively thrives in the pressure cooker that also encompasses the three fronts of Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and all the attendant and inter-related diplomatic and military complexities.

No one has any doubt: it is the outcome of the conflict with Iran that will forever define his legacy.

Whatever the immediate future holds may be conditioned by the timing of the upcoming World Cup in the Americas, running from mid-June to mid-July.

But one way or another the war with Iran has not gone away.

Already an immense shift has taken place since the launch of Operation Roaring Lion: Gulf countries are united and openly condemning Iran for the first time. They see a very different war from the UK and Europe, one that cannot be resolved simply through talks and good intentions. That change represents a crucial and necessary element to contribute to a final victory, whether in the months or years ahead. If anything, the trio of peace talks have also underscored a broader shift in the region.

It’s very simple, said one highly placed Israeli official: “The international community would be well placed to get the Iranian regime to give up their nuclear material. Then this war would be over.”

Amid all the doubt, this is the one certainty. It’s no longer only Netanyahu warning about Iran’s nuclear programme – alarm across the region about the Islamic Republic is sky-high and cannot be contained.

This is a regime whose leaders must know there will be a final reckoning, meted out by Israel and increasingly determined allies. Above all, it has become the driving mission of Netanyahu’s leadership – and he shows no intention of relinquishing it.