What is the ongoing level of threat to Israel – and how is its anti-ballistic missiles system likely to fare given Iran’s remaining stockpiles of missiles?
June 17, 2025 16:08
Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel was estimated to be around 2,000 before the launch of Operation Rising Lion.
Some 20 to 25 percent of those were destroyed by Israel, leaving between 1,500 and 1,600. As of yesterday, Iran had fired approximately 450 missiles, around ten of which got through Israel’s sophisticated defence system, killing several Israelis.
On American columnist Dan Senor’s Call Me Back podcast on Monday, Amit Segal said that if Iran were to keep up its current onslaught of missiles, they would only be able to sustain their attack for around a week.
“As long as the Iranians keep shooting between 75 to 150 ballistic missiles a night, it definitely means that within seven to 12 days they will run out,” he said. With each day that passes, the fewer missiles Iran has.
Segal explained that Iran’s plan had initially been that once Israel had attacked, 1,000 ballistic missiles would be fired towards the Jewish homeland. However, “there weren’t enough to shoot and there wasn’t anyone to give the order.”
Before the decision was taken to carry out the operation, the estimation was 800 to 4,000 Israeli casualties, but what has unfolded, he said, is “under the lowest estimation prior to the operation”.
That the attack has been on a smaller scale has been crucial, he said, because Israel’s defence system cannot guarantee 100 per cent protection. “There is a limit to the scope of attack that our anti-ballistic missiles system can actually handle simultaneously.”
The number of ballistic missiles fired is crucial, “because if they shoot only ten a night our system can actually handle it, so they must shoot this barrage of dozens of ballistic missiles every night”.
So what can Israel’s anti-ballistic missiles system handle? Israel’s defence system explained
The multi-layered defence strategy integrates all the systems into a national command and control network. This enables shared radar data, the prioritisation of threats, and to ensure the efficient use of resources.
On Monday, the IDF provided its first statistics of the war, citing its interception success against Iran’s ballistic missiles as 80 to 90 percent, with only 5 to 10 percent of ballistic missiles hitting residential areas, the Jerusalem Post reported.
Iron Dome
A mobile air defence system, the Iron Dome is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets, artillery shells and mortars in mid-air.
Its radar detects incoming projectiles, then the threat to populated areas, military sites or infrastructure is determined by calculating the trajectory, speed and expected site of impact.
An interceptor Tamir missile – which has its own radar and guidance system – is launched only if the projectile is headed for a populated or strategic area, and explodes near the target ensuring it is harmless. To conserve resources, the Iron Dome does not intercept a missile heading for an open area.
Initially the Iron Dome offered protection against rockets with ranges of 4 to 70 km, but it can now reach up to 250km.
It is highly effective against Hamas and Hezbollah rocket attacks, and has a success rate of 90 percent or more, according to the IDF.
As it’s mainly short-range, it is not effective against Iran’s ballistic missiles or suicide drones unless it has support from other defence systems (see below).
David’s Sling
Named after the story of David and Goliath, David’s Sling is designed to destroy missiles fired from 100 km to 200km away. With a range of up to 300km, it intercepts medium to long-range missiles, aircraft, cruise missiles and some types of drones.
Using the Stunner missile, which has an advanced electro-optical sensor and multi-pulse motor, it can change course mid-flight to strike targets.
Arrow System
Israel's top ballistic missile defence is the Arrow System. Co-developed by Israel and the US, the Arrow-2 and long-range Arrow-3 are designed to intercept incoming ballistic missiles both in the upper atmosphere and in space (like the Iranian Shahab-3). They destroy these threats, reducing the chance of damage.
THAAD
The United States deployed THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) – an advanced aerial defence system – to Israel in October 2024 to help bolster the country’s air defences following Iran's attacks against Israel on April 13 and October 1.
The advanced mobile anti-ballistic missile used by US military's air defences is designed to intercept and destroy short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missile threats in their final stage of flight.
The manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, claims THAAD is the only American system designed to intercept targets both inside and outside the atmosphere. It was developed following the 1991 Gulf War as a countermeasure for long and medium-range missiles.