This has been a good week for Gideon Saar. With just two tweets, he bolstered his status as frontrunner in the Likud succession race and highlighted Benjamin Netanyahu’s increasing weakness.

The former education and interior minister, who turns 53 in two months, is treading a very difficult path between presenting himself as an alternative to Mr Netanyahu, who has led Likud for a cumulative 20 years since 1993, and not being tainted as an assassin in a movement that is famously loyal to its leader.

On Thursday morning, a Likud spokesperson said that Mr Netanyahu was considering holding a snap primary to dispel rumours that another Likudnik would step forward. The notion had been around for a fortnight since the party lost its position as the largest Knesset party in the September 17 election.

Mr Netanyahu believed no other candidate would put themselves forward in the primary and it would be another unopposed coronation, like in 2016.

Most senior Likudniks, including Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz who certainly harbours leadership ambitions, were quick to fall in line, issuing abject pledges of allegiance. The exception was Mr Saar, who tweeted two words: “I’m ready”. He refused to say anything else to the reporters who mobbed him in the Knesset.

“Gideon knows he probably won’t win against Netanyahu, who still has the most supporters,” said one party activist close to Mr Saar. “But he’s positioning himself as the alternative on the day after.”

Mr Saar was also banking on the prime minister’s legendary paranoia. Likud bylaws don’t require a leadership race before the next election, so why would Mr Netanyahu risk one if he didn’t need to?

The would-be challenger was right. A day later, Mr Netanyahu agreed with Likud central committee chairman Haim Katz that, instead of setting a date for a leadership primary, the central committee would meet on Thursday to reaffirm Mr Netanyahu as the party’s only candidate for prime minister. It was another opportunity for Mr Saar to crow.

“Convening the central committee is not necessary,” he tweeted. “No-one disputes the prime minister’s position as Likud leader. When there is a contest for the leadership, as the prime minister himself initiated a few days ago, I will compete.”

Mr Netanyahu’s hold over Likud remains strong. His support among the grassroots is still overwhelming and while the party’s big beasts are itching for their chance at the leadership, not even Mr Saar dares to confront him openly. Likud has never deposed its leader and the aspirants know that being seen as a “putschist” could doom their future chances.

That does not mean the prime minister’s position is secure.

He has now failed in two consecutive elections to win a majority for his coalition. Likud is no longer the largest party and he remains in office only due to Mr Gantz’s inability to form a coalition of his own. And to top it all, his lawyers have now completed four days of a pre-trial hearing. The combination of political and legal pressures may soon force him out of office, if not the Likud leadership.

Mr Saar may be the only senior Likudnik to have so far broken cover, but he is certainly not the only one preparing for the day after Bibi.