Analysis
Settlement vote is reminder to Netanyahu that his fate is not in his hands
As one senior Israeli official put it after the vote went through, "they ambushed Bibi when he was in London"
February 7, 2017 16:41
2 min read
As one senior Israeli official put it after the vote went through, "they ambushed Bibi when he was in London"
February 7, 2017 16:41Benjamin Netanyahu didn't have to try hard to conceal how he really felt about the "regularisation bill" his coalition was about to pass in the Knesset.
If he had wanted to be associated with the controversial piece of legislation, he would have made sure that the vote on Monday night was held up, by filibuster if necessary, until he returned to the country so he could take part in it himself.
Instead, he was content for it to take place while he was en route from London.
They didn't need his vote anyway. The bill passed its final reading 60-52.
The law is just another reminder of how Mr Netanyahu's political fate is in the hands of others and how he has become hostage to the most right-wing elements in his own coalition.
As one senior Israeli official put it after the vote went through, "they ambushed Bibi when he was in London".
Some Israelis, including opposition leader Isaac Herzog, have warned that the law, effectively legalising retroactive expropriation of privately-owned Palestinian land if Jewish settlements were built on it inadvertently, could open Israelis up to prosecution by the International Criminal Court.
At present however, such a prospect is remote. Such a prosecution would be unlikely while the ICC is having trouble bringing those accused of mass-murder to justice.
As it is, there is a good chance the Israeli High Court will strike it down on grounds of unconstitutionality anyway. But it comes at a very bad time for Mr Netanyahu, when he is busy trying to change the international agenda, shifting it away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to unite Western governments against the Iranian regime.
Statements from the Trump administration and what Mr Netanyahu heard from Theresa May in Downing Street on Monday will have encouraged him.
The last thing he needs are diversions back home in Jerusalem. But just as he is globe-trotting – this week Britain, next week the United States and the following week to Australia and Singapore – his coalition partners, in particular his former aides, Jewish Home ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, reminded him how vulnerable he is domestically.
Not only does Jewish Home hold the keys to his coalition with its eight MKs, they also are his weakest link should the Attorney General decide to indict him over any of the corruption allegations currently being investigated by police.
The other parties have little to gain in such a case by going for elections, but Jewish Home is riding high in the polls.
Mr Bennett has already said he “won't bring the government down because of cigars", referring to the gifts Mr Netanyahu allegedly received, but that could change.
Meanwhile, the "regularisation bill" is just the first item on Jewish Home's shopping list. The next thing is a law being prepared for the annexation of Ma'ale Adumim, the large settlement to the east of Jerusalem.
The right-wing claims that with Donald Trump in the White House, Israel can go ahead and pursue a pro-settlement policy without incurring the wrath of its American ally. They may be right on this.
American diplomats admitted this week they were still uncertain what their new administration's policy was on the issue.
This would have sounded outlandish just a few weeks ago, but Mr Netanyahu may actually be starting to miss Barack Obama.
