Britain’s latest sanctions are intended to bring a two-state solution closer, yet the British government possesses neither the leverage to impose one nor the means to guarantee Israel’s security afterwards. Israelis are being asked to commit national suicide.
The legal arguments themselves pull towards incompatible outcomes. Post-war decolonisation law underpins Palestinian claims to statehood. Uti possidetis juris, the older principle preserving inherited administrative boundaries, supports the argument that Israel inherited the Mandate’s borders and the West Bank is therefore sovereign Israeli territory. However, the International Court of Justice’s 2024 advisory opinion affirmed Palestinian self-determination and found Israel’s continued presence unlawful. That is the prevailing international position. Neither option is fit for purpose. The West Bank was never a separate colony awaiting independence; its history runs through Ottoman and Mandatory rule, followed by Jordanian and Israeli control. Decolonisation provides no ready-made answer to two peoples claiming the same territory.
Miliband’s sanctions are performative because Britain lacks the diplomatic weight, economic leverage and military capacity to impose the two-state outcome it demands. France and Canada joining us does not alter that calculation. Israel has already ordered the closure of Britain’s consulate in East Jerusalem and removed British personnel from the Gaza reconstruction process in response. Losing that access will make British diplomacy harder, even as ministers insist their policy is bringing a settlement closer.
The issue boils down to realpolitik. Israel’s narrow coastal plain contains much of its population and critical infrastructure. The West Bank’s high ground overlooks that concentration of people, including the approaches to Ben Gurion airport. The Golan Heights and Mount Hermon offer similar advantages in the north. Settlements and security presence in the West Bank buy warning time and space to halt an attack. Since October 7, Israel has increasingly sought buffer zones to keep armed enemies away from its communities. Defence Minister Israel Katz made that approach explicit in 2025, announcing that troops would remain in security zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
Israel will endure anything Britain is realistically prepared to impose before accepting what they believe would be national suicide. It is an abject fantasy to expect them to relinquish the West Bank’s strategic depth while Palestinians retain their ambition to destroy Israel from the river to the sea. The two-state solution will not happen under these conditions, however often British ministers repeat the phrase.
Palestinian attacks prompt tighter Israeli security measures; Israeli restrictions in response then deepen the grievances militants exploit to recruit. Before anything else, breaking that cycle first requires pressure on the Palestinian leaders and institutions that sustain the violence. Israeli settler violence deserves punishment, and security cannot excuse every Israeli action, but Palestinian responsibility should become the lynchpin of British policy if we are serious about peace in the Middle East. Diplomatic backing and financial support should be entirely contingent on ending incitement and dismantling the systems that reward attacks.
Material from Palestinian Authority schools celebrates October 7, including arithmetic exercises counting murdered Israelis. Britain should condemn that corruption of education and demand changes in classrooms, with equivalent scrutiny of state-backed Friday mosque sermons preaching antisemitic hatred. Teaching children to admire their neighbours’ killers prepares them for another war. Coexistence requires educators and religious leaders who will teach that Jewish lives have value and that Israel’s continued existence must be accepted.
The “pay for slay” system requires the same pressure. Mahmoud Abbas announced its replacement with need-based welfare in February 2025. However, in August, Fatah spokesman Mundhir al-Hayek said payments to prisoners and families of “martyrs” had continued. Ministers should require an independent audit establishing that payments rewarding imprisonment or violence have ended, with consequences for evasion. A new administrative label will not suffice. It is demonstrably clear that the current Palestinian Authority is below par.
We need to reconsider the political destination from first principles. My preference remains a Palestinian emirates model, built around locally legitimate administrations willing to recognise Israel and cooperate with it. Begin where credible partners exist, support their authority with investment and security arrangements, and protect them from militants who would murder them as collaborators. Residents must have meaningful self-government and reliable movement between communities. Their consent matters: installing compliant strongmen would leave the political problem unresolved.
An “ink blot” approach would allow successful areas to expand as neighbouring communities saw the advantages of peace. Britain and willing Arab partners could fund employment and schools that teach coexistence, while Israel eases restrictions as security improves. The aim would be to isolate militants from people whose prospects they threaten. Britain could also help Israel and Jordan disrupt the arms routes that Jordanian security officials have linked to Iran’s efforts to arm West Bank militants. That would address a tangible obstacle to compromise.
Such a policy would require years of work, with militants trying to wreck every local agreement. Britain’s sanctions on Israel instead offer ministers a cheaper, crowd-pleasing way to display resolve whilst moving not an inch towards peace. We must be clear: the two-state solution is dead; it is tantamount to Israeli national suicide. Israelis will keep the ground they believe they need to survive, and Palestinians will remain behind their checkpoints for as long as they preach the destruction of the state of Israel, indoctrinate their children to hatred, and reward violence. Britain needs to stop banging the futile two-state drum and help find a new path to peace.
Andrew Fox is a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, and co-host of The Brink podcast with former JC editor, Jake Wallis Simons
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