George Friedman is a political scientist, prolific author and head of a private US intelligence agency named Stratfor. He is usually worth reading, even when events do not bear out his predictions. This is an extract from his review of the problems immediately facing President Obama:
“The major challenge he faces is not Gaza: the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is not one any US. president intervenes in unless he wants to experience pain. As we have explained, that is an intractable conflict to which there is no real solution. Certainly, Obama will fight being drawn into mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during his first hundred days in office. He undoubtedly will send the obligatory Middle East envoy, who will spend time with all the parties, make suitable speeches and extract meaningless concessions from all sides. This envoy will establish some sort of process to which everyone will cynically commit, knowing it will go nowhere. Such a mission is not involvement — it is the alternative to involvement, and the reason presidents appoint Middle East envoys. Obama can avoid the Gaza crisis and he will do so.”
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