Election seasons have a way of taking over everything in Israel.
A security dispute with Turkey over the possible deployment of weapons systems in Syria is no longer just a security dispute. One side argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is acting responsibly, trying to prevent an adversarial regional power from establishing a military foothold near Israel’s borders. The other side claims that Netanyahu is exaggerating the threat, manufacturing tension because fear helps him politically and reinforces the argument that Israelis need him to stay in power to keep them safe.
Almost everything is viewed this way now and that includes what is happening in the West Bank.
There is no serious dispute that Jewish violence against Palestinians has increased significantly over the past year. According to Israeli Defence Ministry data, violent incidents have risen by roughly 60 percent. The attacks are becoming more frequent, more brazen and more difficult to ignore. Palestinians are beaten, homes are attacked, cars are torched and olive groves are vandalised.
There is also little doubt that the government could be doing far more to stop it.
Last year, Defence Minister Israel Katz ended the use of administrative detention against Jewish extremists, removing one of the tools security authorities had used against suspects considered dangerous even when there was insufficient evidence for a criminal prosecution. At the same time, ministers have argued over who is supposed to take responsibility for the problem – the police or the IDF.
When everyone argues over who is responsible, the result is that no one really is.
The reasons for the increase are not difficult to understand. October 7 changed Israeli society - the Hamas massacre traumatised Israelis, and created a rage and feeling among some on the far Right that revenge against Palestinians is justified.
It is not. It is immoral, illegal and contrary to the values upon which Israel was established. But it would be a mistake to pretend that this sentiment does not exist or that it has not contributed to what we are seeing.
There is another factor as well. The violence has grown under what is arguably the most pro-settlement government Israel has ever had. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has pushed through an unprecedented expansion of Israeli activity in Judea and Samaria, including the establishment and authorisation of about 100 new farms and outposts throughout the territory.
For the extremists the message was that even if the government did not explicitly authorise violence, the feeling was that they were protected and that the chances of paying a meaningful price were low.
For people outside Israel, the relative indifference of the Israeli public to what is often called “settler violence” is sometimes difficult to understand. The issue is constantly covered abroad, yet – until now – barely registers a response in the Israeli political debate.
Part of the explanation is that most Israelis simply do not think very much about the Palestinians anymore. October 7 pushed much of the country to the conclusion that peace and coexistence are not realistic, at least not now. As a result, what happens in Palestinian villages in the West Bank feels distant to many Israelis, almost disconnected from the threats they believe the country is facing.
That may explain public apathy. It does not excuse political indifference and Israel’s leaders should understand what this is doing to the country.
There is growing lawlessness. Innocent civilians are being hurt and villages such as Qusra have found themselves under attack. Beyond the obvious moral failure, the violence is causing Israel enormous diplomatic damage.
And this is not a problem that better public diplomacy can solve. Israel cannot credibly argue that it is incapable of stopping a small group of Jewish extremists operating in territory where the IDF and the Shin Bet have an enormous intelligence presence.
This is the same country whose security agencies can track terrorists across continents. It is the same country whose police recently located an Israeli mother and daughter on a bus in Argentina after they had fled through Austria and other parts of Europe.
Israel knows how to find people. That is why the continued failure in the West Bank is so telling.
The question is not whether the security forces can identify the people behind these attacks. The question is whether they have been told to make it a priority.
And that is where the election now enters the story. What has changed over the past week is not the violence itself. What has changed is that the violence has finally become politically costly.
There are two reasons. The first is that the numbers are becoming impossible to ignore. The incidents are more frequent, the footage more disturbing and the perpetrators more audacious. The government can no longer dismiss each attack as an isolated incident.
Netanyahu himself condemned the violence on Saturday, his first such public condemnation in months.
The second reason is Washington. The Trump administration has been one of the most supportive American administrations Israel has ever had and has stood firmly behind Netanyahu on a range of strategic issues. But even there, patience appears to be wearing thin.
US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, a great supporter of the settlement movement, recently referred to those carrying out attacks against Palestinians as “terrorists.”
No one can accuse Huckabee of hostility toward Israel. No one can claim that he is looking for an excuse to condemn settlers or undermine the Israeli government.
And Netanyahu understands what that means.
He is heading into an election in which one of his central arguments will be that only he can manage the relationship with President Donald Trump and translate that relationship into strategic gains for Israel.
He wants Israelis to believe that whatever they think of him after three years of war and October 7, his standing in Washington remains an asset that none of his rivals can replicate. A fight with the Trump administration over Jewish violence in the West Bank would hurt that message.
A serious crackdown risks angering parts of the Right whose votes he will need. Failing to act risks creating friction with an American president whose support Netanyahu will want to showcase throughout the campaign.
For years, the political calculation was easy. There was little domestic price to pay for ignoring Jewish violence in the West Bank. The people responsible represented a tiny fringe, most Israelis were not paying attention and international criticism could be dismissed as more of the same hostility Israel had grown accustomed to hearing.
That calculation has changed and the question now is what will Netanyahu do with that realisation.
Condemnations are easy but what really matters is seeing people arrested, prosecuted and punished. It is about security forces receiving clear orders to stop attacks instead of arriving after the damage has already been done.
Finally, the political calculation and the diplomatic necessity have met. What remains to be seen is real action on the ground.
Yaakov Katz is a co-founder of the MEAD Forum, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, and the former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post. His latest book (with Amir Bohbot), While Israel Slept, is a bestseller in the United States
To get more from opinion, click here to sign up for our free Editor's Picks newsletter.