The British government’s position on Israel’s operations in Lebanon has become incoherent. In March, Britain twice joined statements saying that Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel must cease, the group must disarm, and that responsibility for the situation lay with Hezbollah. Yet on April 9, Yvette Cooper called Israel’s latest strikes “deeply damaging” and insisted that Lebanon be folded into wider ceasefire diplomacy. If Hezbollah bears responsibility, Israel cannot then be treated as the principal problem for trying to dismantle the force that opened this front.
Israel did not start the northern war. Hezbollah did. It opened fire on October 8, 2023, one day after Hamas’s massacre, forcing the evacuation of around 60,000 Israelis from border towns and villages. This came after years during which Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia founded in 1982 and built around violent opposition to Israel, amassed a vast rocket and missile arsenal. Pre-war estimates ranged from 120,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles. Calling Israel the aggressor turns cause and effect upside down.
Our government also treats Lebanon as a normal sovereign actor capable of controlling events on its own territory. Lebanon’s sovereignty is hollow; Hezbollah has long functioned as a state within a state. Hezbollah is militarily stronger than the Lebanese Armed Forces, Hezbollah fighters are better paid and better armed. The LAF, hollowed out by Lebanon’s financial collapse, has needed foreign salary support while Hezbollah is operating on a $50 million monthly budget, mostly from Iranian money laundered through Turkey and the UAE. No serious observer could call that a state monopoly on force. Lebanon lives under a zombie militia-state, subsidised by Tehran, which decides questions of war and peace.
UK-funded LAF base overlooking Israeli positions[Missing Credit]
That same unreality has governed the West’s treatment of UNIFIL. Resolution 1701 was supposed to leave the area between the Blue Line and the Litani free of armed personnel and weapons other than those of Lebanon’s government and UNIFIL, yet UNIFIL’s own guidance says peacekeepers report only violations of 1701. They do not operate under rules of engagement that allow them to enforce 1701 in any meaningful sense. The result is the strategic farce Israel has lived with for nearly two decades: an international mission that watches as Hezbollah entrenches, stores weapons, builds underground infrastructure and prepares for the next round.
Before October 7, the nightmare scenario for many Israelis in the north was Hezbollah’s Radwan force. In early 2023, Hezbollah published footage of Radwan fighters simulating an invasion of northern Israel. Israeli officials had long feared a cross-border massacre from Lebanon. After October 7, those fears could no longer be dismissed as alarmist. A state that has just seen one border community overrun is not obliged to gamble that another enemy, openly rehearsing the same, does not mean what it says.
I saw the physical reality of that threat for myself in November 2024, when I visited a captured Hezbollah tunnel in Maroun al-Ras. It was a highly engineered underground complex carved through solid chalk, with air conditioning, fire suppression, full electrics and tiled living quarters.
The IDF recovered anti-tank weapons, machine guns and ammunition in quantity. The layout was militarily telling: this was essentially a staging location, rather than a defensive position. Fighters could converge from elsewhere in Lebanon, enter via the entrance in a cemetery, change, arm up, and move towards the border.
The exit was aligned with the terrain, which fell downhill towards Avivim in Israel. It looked like what it was, preparation for an assault. The tunnel contained command rooms, living quarters and weapon storage facilities, ready for infiltration into Israel.
Tiled floor and weapons in Hezbollah tunnel[Missing Credit]
When I returned to Lebanon in January this year, I saw further evidence that Maroun al-Ras was not an aberration. Hezbollah’s military structures have been woven into village life right across the border belt. Operation Northern Arrows in 2024 severely degraded Hezbollah, but it did not resolve the underlying problem.
Since the ceasefire, Hezbollah, with Iranian help, spent months restocking rockets and drones, redeploying fighters, and preparing for another round. Even where the LAF made limited progress south of the Litani, Hezbollah still refused to disarm fully. Tehran’s insistence that Lebanon be included in the current ceasefire diplomacy only underlines the point: Hezbollah remains Iran’s premier proxy, and Iran wants it preserved.
Israel may not achieve a decisive victory in Lebanon. The question is whether it can stop a proven enemy from regaining the capability and opportunity to repeat in Israeli border communities such as Avivim, Metula or Manara what Hamas did in the south.
Since October 7, Israel has made a hard, rational decision: it will no longer accept mortal enemies building launch sites, tunnels and invasion plans on its borders, nor will it ask civilians to live under them. Britain should understand this. Better still, it should support Israel while helping the Lebanese state and armed forces finish the job that UN resolutions never enforced: ending Hezbollah’s stranglehold on Lebanon for good.
Andrew Fox is a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, and co-host of The Brink podcast with former JC editor, Jake Wallis Simons
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