For more than four years, Israeli politics has been governed by a familiar and increasingly rigid division. On one side stands Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance, led by Likud and supported by the religious Zionist and Charedi parties. On the other is the broad opposition camp, comprising most of the parties that formed the previous government and united principally by their desire to remove Netanyahu.
Every opinion poll is therefore accompanied by the same calculation. After listing how many seats each party is projected to win, the television graphics divide them into blocs and ask whether either side can reach the magic number of 61. The Arab parties are generally placed to one side. Neither bloc currently presents them as likely coalition partners, although Netanyahu’s allies constantly warn that the opposition will again rely on Ra’am, as the Bennett-Lapid government did.
This binary structure has shaped almost every political discussion in Israel but it may now be breaking down.
A collection of new parties could become a third bloc: parties that define themselves as Zionist, predominantly right-wing or centre-right, but refuse to declare loyalty to either Netanyahu or the existing opposition leadership. The first significant move came from former communications minister Yoaz Hendel and former Blue and White minister Chili Tropper. Their new alliance, Zionist Home-The Reservists, promises to establish a “Zionist, statesmanlike government”, restore governance and make widespread enlistment a condition for joining any coalition.
It was followed just one day later by former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, who launched another, as yet unnamed, party beneath the slogan “Right-wing. Enlistment. Unity”.
Their message was carefully chosen. They are not renouncing the ideological right, nor are they joining the anti-Netanyahu left. Instead, they argue that Likud no longer represents many of its traditional voters and that Israel requires a broad government that cannot be held hostage by narrow sectoral interests. This is more than the usual pre-election proliferation of personalities and party logos. It reflects an important shift within the Israeli electorate.
Since October 7, Israeli society has moved to the right on security. There is little appetite for a return to the assumptions that dominated the peace-process era. Yet many right-wing voters are also deeply disappointed with the current coalition. They do not necessarily want a left-wing government, but neither are they willing to overlook the failures of recent years or accept that loyalty to the right must mean unquestioning loyalty to Netanyahu.
The figures assembling in this new political space understand that mood. Hendel once served as an adviser to Netanyahu, while Erdan and Edelstein spent decades in Likud and possess impeccable right-wing credentials. They cannot easily be dismissed as disguised leftists, even if Tropper, who served in the Bennett-Lapid government, comes from a more centrist tradition.
Above all, these parties have identified the issue that is fast becoming Netanyahu’s Achilles heel: Charedi enlistment.
Amid enormous security challenges, the unequal distribution of national responsibility has become one of Israel’s most emotionally charged political questions. Reservists and their families have carried an extraordinary burden, while the government has continued trying to protect sweeping exemptions for the strictly Orthodox community.
The anger is particularly potent on the right. Religious Zionists, Likud voters and residents of communities that have paid a heavy price in the war increasingly ask how a government calling itself “fully right-wing” can accept a shortage of soldiers while defending those who refuse to serve. Netanyahu himself recognises the danger. During a visit to the IDF’s Charedi Hasmonean Brigade, he declared that “those who do not study Torah must enlist”, while insisting that Charedi recruits must be able to enter and leave the army as Charedim.
The statement may sound self-evident to most Israelis, but to Netanyahu’s Charedi partners it approaches political heresy. Its significance lies in the fact that he felt compelled to say it at all. This is the opportunity for the emerging third bloc. It can tell right-wing voters that they need not choose between their ideological convictions and their demand for responsibility, service and competent government.
Its potential power will not be measured only by its size. If these parties cross the electoral threshold and neither established bloc reaches 61 seats, they could determine who governs Israel and under what conditions. Bennett demonstrated how far such leverage could reach when, with only seven seats, he became prime minister. That shattered the old assumption that the premiership belonged automatically to the leader of the largest party or bloc.
Others may now be tempted into the same space. One name frequently mentioned is retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, a popular figure among religious and right-wing Israelis who believe his advancement in the IDF was restricted by prejudice against his views and religious background. His criticism of the coalition and outspoken support for Charedi military service could make him an attractive addition to this developing camp.
There are, of course, dangers. Too many competing parties could divide the vote and leave several beneath the electoral threshold. Recent polls have already suggested that some of the new formations may struggle to enter the Knesset.
Mergers may therefore become unavoidable before party lists close. Yet if these leaders can unite around a credible platform and cross the threshold, they could overturn Israel’s political arithmetic.
The next election may no longer be merely a contest between Netanyahu and his opponents. It could be decided by a third bloc of right-wing voters who have lost faith in the government but refuse to abandon the right. They may not win the election, but they could decide its outcome.
Ashley Perry is a former senior Israeli government adviser
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