Gilad Erdan: The dark horse who could decide Israel’s next government

This reality has profound implications for how the next election campaign is likely to unfold.

Conventional wisdom assumes that Netanyahu's objective is to increase his bloc's strength sufficiently to secure another stable right-wing government. Yet given the current polling trends, gaining the additional seats necessary to comfortably return to power appears increasingly difficult.

The more achievable strategic objective may be something entirely different: ensuring that the opposition cannot reach 61.

If the opposition fails to secure a majority, Israel enters familiar territory. Coalition negotiations become extraordinarily complex. Parties must cross traditional political boundaries, rivals become potential partners, and smaller factions suddenly acquire enormous leverage.

If no viable coalition emerges, Israelis could once again find themselves returning to the ballot box within months.

Viewed through this lens, the next election may not be about who wins outright. It may be about who successfully denies victory to the other side.

One possible scenario that could shake up the political map would be the emergence of a right-wing party led by former Likud figures, attracting voters from opposition-aligned parties on the right and making it more difficult for the opposition bloc to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government.

This could make sense if we look at the political trends of the last few years.

Since October 7 and the subsequent wars, the country has moved in two seemingly contradictory directions. It has become more right-wing, but it has also lost confidence in the government. This means that there are a lot more right-wing votes in the opposition, and are giving figures like Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman a boost.

This is precisely where a new political force could dramatically alter the electoral landscape.

For months there has been speculation about the emergence of a new right-wing party led by respected military figures. The name most frequently mentioned has been Ofer Winter, whose popularity among religious and nationalist voters has made him a recurring subject of political rumours.

Yet despite the speculation, no such movement has materialised.

Now another possibility has emerged.

Former Likud minister and Israeli ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan has publicly indicated that he is considering launching a new political party.

Unlike many political newcomers, Erdan enters the conversation with substantial credentials. He is a long-time Likud figure, served in multiple ministerial positions, and built a reputation as one of Israel's most combative and effective advocates on the international stage during his tenure at the United Nations.

More importantly, he may be uniquely positioned to attract a specific category of voter: centre-right Israelis who remain ideologically conservative but have grown frustrated with the current coalition.

Reports and rumours have suggested that an Erdan-led party could attract prominent Likud figures and internal critics, including Yuli Edelstein. Edelstein earned widespread respect across much of the political spectrum for his efforts to prevent legislation that would effectively perpetuate exemptions from military service for large numbers of ultra-Orthodox Israelis.

Crucially, such a party would not need to become a major electoral force to reshape Israeli politics.

Five to seven seats could be enough.

Israeli political history repeatedly demonstrates that relatively small parties can exercise extraordinary influence. Coalition arithmetic often transforms minor factions into kingmakers. In previous governments, parties with only a handful of seats have secured senior ministries, dictated policy priorities, and even helped determine who becomes prime minister.

An Erdan-led party occupying the space between traditional Likud loyalists and the current opposition could therefore have an impact far greater than its numerical strength suggests.

If it attracts voters from Bennett, Liberman, or other opposition-aligned right-wing parties, it could deprive the anti-Netanyahu bloc of the seats required to reach 61. In that scenario, the opposition would find itself unable to form a government without Erdan's cooperation.

That would place him at the centre of coalition negotiations and potentially make his party the decisive factor in determining Israel's next government.

Indeed, if the party gained sufficient momentum, it could even help Netanyahu return to power by fragmenting the opposition vote and shifting the overall balance between the blocs.

Another possible scenario is it could attract just enough Likud voters to be able to give the opposition bloc not only its 61, but even a more secure government of mid-60s seats, and the party could demand the premiership for Erdan, much in the same way Bennett did in 2021.

For months, political observers have focused on possible mergers, alliances, and leadership arrangements among opposition parties. Yet none of those scenarios have fundamentally altered the underlying arithmetic.

A credible new party led by Gilad Erdan, some are calling “Likud Bet”, or Likud B, might be different.

In an election likely to be decided by a handful of seats rather than sweeping ideological shifts, the most important political development may not be a battle between Netanyahu and his opponents.

It may be whether a former Likud heavyweight can persuade enough right-wing voters to chart a new course.

If he succeeds, Gilad Erdan could become the man who determines not only who governs Israel next, but whether anyone can govern at all.

Ashley Perry is a former senior Israeli government adviser who has worked with eight cabinet ministers and has been involved in Israeli politics and every election campaign for the past two decades