The Israeli and US attacks seem to have bought a great deal of time. What we do with that time will determine whether we truly prevent – or merely postpone – a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic
June 26, 2025 16:11
It is a certainty that Iran's decades-long nuclear ambitions have been dealt a severe blow. Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, now considered “inoperative”, were the collective centrepiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment. But permanent dismantlement – “obliteration,” in President Trump’s word – is not as simple as bombing key sites alone. If the international community really wants to ensure Iran stays nuclear-neutered, several key steps remain.
1.Target clandestine and military nuclear infrastructure
The Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme has always operated in the shadows. While Fordow and Natanz were prominent, it is certain that Iran has developed parallel or backup sites in locations known only to the regime. Indeed, Iran claimed the existence of a third enrichment site in a fit of pique, after publication of a damning IAEA report on June 12. Even as Iran threatens to now end cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, several undeclared sites remain under IAEA investigation for suspected ties to weaponisation.
Among the known sites of concern are the Tehran Nuclear Research Centre (TNRC) and Parchin Military Complex, also in Tehran. Both (and especially Parchin) have long been suspected of developing and housing dual-use technology that can be used for weaponisation. While Israel attacked Parchin, its status remains unknown. Both facilities need to be fully neutralised – whether through verifiable dismantlement or renewed military action.
2.Eliminate missile delivery capabilities
A nuclear weapon is only as dangerous as the system used to launch it. Iran's advances in ballistic missile technology, particularly its Shahab-3 series, provides the main delivery system for a potential nuclear payload. Continuing to target missile production, storage, and test sites, as the Israel Air Force did during its June military operations, is essential to wrecking the strategic value of any residual or future fissile material.
3.Neutralise scientific and technical networks
Facilities can be rebuilt but knowledge cannot so easily be bombed out of existence. Iran's nuclear capabilities rest heavily on its army of physicists and engineers, many educated in the West. The international community must now move to sanction or disband these technical networks. This means targeting procurement agents, revoking visas, freezing assets, sanctions, travel bans, and leveraging diplomatic pressure. The long-standing collaboration of troubling and sanctioned Iranian universities with western universities, including on drone cooperation, must also end.
4.Control imports and smuggling routes
Iran’s nuclear industry has survived under global sanctions in large measure due to its mastery of black-market procurement. The regime will now likely turn to these network to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has already said that there are countries ready to support Iran.
Maritime routes, including through Iran’s main seaport of Bandar Abbas, major trans-shipment hubs in the UAE, land corridors through Iraq and Turkey, and relationships with North Korea and Pakistan must be subject to far more intensive scrutiny. Seaborne interdiction and enforcement, in particular, must be stepped up by the US in cooperation with allies.
5.Prepare for asymmetric retaliation and encourage European diplomatic pressure
The technical process of dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme is not divorced from the political context. While its main terror proxies and partners, namely Hezbollah and Hamas, appear quiescent as a result of Israeli operations since October 7, there is no guarantee they will remain so. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, also retains the loyalty of powerful Shiite militias in Iraq, like Kataib Hezbollah. Notwithstanding a weak initial and apparently choreographed attack against the US airbase in Qatar, Iran has vowed revenge.
The West must bolster regional defences and cyber readiness, while also holding out the prospect of a diplomatic off-ramp in the admittedly unlikely event Tehran agrees to permanently and verifiably dismantle its programme. Encouraging equivocal European nations to step up their own political and diplomatic pressure on Iran, notably through finally designating the IRGC as a terrorist entity, will also be required as long as the regime continues its belligerence.
6. Understand the job’s not done
No doubt the operation against Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was a watershed moment. But dismantling Iran’s vast, dispersed and partially clandestine nuclear programme is not a single event, as was the case for Israel’s successful destruction of the single-site programmes of Syria and Iraq.
It will need serious follow-up. If not, we risk repeating the cycle: delay, rebuild, lie, threaten – and strike again. Notwithstanding its possible collapse, the Islamic Republic of Iran works to a timeline far more protracted than, say, America’s four-year presidential cycle. And the President in 2035 may lack the will to do what Trump has done today.
To their credit, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu seem to have bought a great deal of time. What we do with that time will determine whether we truly prevent – or merely postpone – a nuclear-armed Iran.
Daniel Roth is the Research Director of United Against Nuclear Iran
