The JC’s guide to election night

Key timings for readers thinking of staying up overnight


A man with a ballot box (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

On morning of July 5, the country will wake up and discover whether Rishi Sunak has, against all the odds and pretty much all opinion polls, managed to cling onto power or whether Sir Keir Starmer will be the new occupant of Downing Street.

Incidentally, if he is, his wife Victoria will be the first practising Jew to reside in Downing Street.

For readers are thinking about doing an all-nighter, the JC has produced a helpful guide of key moments that we think may be of interest.

Disclaimer: timings on likely results for constituencies can change subject to circumstances on the night.

22.00: Exit poll

The first early snapshot of how the night will proceed. Carried out by polling company Ipsos on behalf of major broadcasters (BBC, ITV, SKY), the exit poll is not prophetic, but gives a clear indication of the likely results, who will form the next government and how big (or small) their majority will be.

23.30: First result

Ian Lavery, the Labour Party chair under Jeremy Corbyn, is likely to be elected for the newly created seat of Blyth and Ashington in Northumberland.

01.00: First Jewish MP of the night elected?

In Makerfield, in the north west of England, Josh Simons, director of pro-Starmer think-tank Labour Together, looks set to win and be the first Jewish MP elected on the night.

02.00: Gateshead

Mark Ferguson, the trade union official at Unison, will (barring any unexpected shock) be elected as the new Labour MP for the freshly created seat of Gateshead Central and Wickham. The seat contains most of the area’s Charedi community, the third largest in the UK.

02.30: North Durham

If the name Luke Akehurst sounds familiar, that is because the longtime Labour moderate, who serves on the party’s governing body (the National Executive Committee) is also director of campaign group We Believe in Israel.

Though not Jewish, Akehurst’s unapologetic support for Israel has earned him plenty of enemies on the left and on social media.

He will very likely succeed Labour’s Kevan Jones (who stood down) as the area’s new MP.

02.30: Rochdale

Controversial Workers Party leader George Galloway is standing for re-election in Rochdale in Greater Manchester.

The anti-Israel firebrand is being challenged by Labour’s Paul Waugh, the chief political commentator of the i newspaper. Labour lost the seat to Galloway in a by-election in February this year.

Galloway declared: "Keir Starmer – this is for Gaza” when he won. An estimated 30 per cent of voters in Rochdale are Muslim and the former Big Brother contestant will hope to tap into the apparent hostility among some Muslim voters to Labour’s position on the Israel-Hamas war.

02.45: Hertsmere

Could this election’s Portillo Moment take place in leafy Hertfordshire?

Josh Tapper, the Jewish former Gogglebox star, is Labour’s candidate against Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden.

Although the Conservative cabinet minister is defending a majority of 21,313 at the 2019 election, an MRP poll by Ipsos suggested the result would be too close to call. However, rival pollsters Survation and YouGov said the Tories will hang on.

03.00: Newark

Former Home Office minister Robert Jenrick, tipped by some as a contender in a future Conservative leadership contest, may first face a challenge to hold onto his seat.

Polls suggest that the Conservative ex-minister, who is married to an Israeli, might lose his seat to Labour.

03.00: Chelsea and Fulham

Could we be in for a shock result in one of London’s poshest areas?

Labour’s Ben Coleman, who is Jewish, hopes to unseat Conservative Trade Minister and Minister for London Greg Hands.

The Tory minister is defending a majority of over 11,000 at the previous general election, but polls have suggested the seat could be in play for Labour.

03.00: Islington North

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was blocked from standing for his former party and is standing in the north London constituency he has held since 1983 as an independent.

Despite some celebrity endorsements, including from Trainspotting author Irvine Welsh, multiple opinion polls suggest he will lose to his former party.

03.15: Bristol Central

Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire is facing a challenge from Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer, in what some pollsters say could be the only Labour loss on an otherwise victorious night.

The Greens were recently accused of “stirring division” by Jewish former Labour MP Louise Ellman over their use of the Palestinian flag and images of destruction in Gaza in a batch of leaflets distributed in the seat.

03.15: Kingston and Surbiton

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey is expected to hold his outer London riverside constituency.

03.30: East Renfrewshire

Around 40 per cent of Scotland’s Jews live in the Greater Glasgow constituency.

The seat has changed hands multiple times over past elections. In 2015, the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald defeated Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. She was then defeated by the Conservatives’ Paul Masterton in 2017 but retook the seat in 2019.

Her main challenger is expected to be Labour’s Blair McDougall, who was head strategist to Better Together, the ‘No’ campaign in Scotland’s independence referendum in 2014.

03.30: Harrow East

Tory Bob Blackman is defending a majority of 8,170 from 2019. Opinion polls say the result in the bellwether constituency, which has both large Jewish and Hindu electorates, could be extremely close. Labour’s Primesh Patel, a former local councillor, is likely to be Blackman’s main challenger.

Labour’s 2019 candidate, Corbynista Pamela Fitzpatrick, is standing against her party as an independent.

03.30: Leeds

Results for all Leeds parliamentary constituencies are expected, including for Jewish Labour candidates Alex Sobel (Leeds North West) and Fabian Hamilton (Leeds North East), who are standing for re-election as MPs. Both are expected to win comfortably.

03.30: Queens Park and Maida Vale

Another expected Jewish addition to the Labour ranks on Parliament’s green benches.

Georgia Gould, leader of Camden Council, is likely to win the newly created London constituency.

03.30: Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket

Labour’s Peter Prinsley, who is Jewish and a surgeon, faces off against former No 10 special adviser Will Tanner in the newly created East Anglia seat.

Can Labour pull off a shock result in a true-blue Tory heartland?

0345: Welwyn Hatfield

Jewish Defence Secretary Grant Shapps faces a huge battle to hold onto his constituency from a Labour challenge.

He could be one of the expected high-profile Conservative casualties of the night.

03.45: Bristol North East

Labour’s Damian Egan, who is Jewish, is expected to win the newly created seat.

Egan was first elected to Parliament at the Kingswood by-election in February this year. He previously served as mayor of the London Borough of Lewisham.

04.00: Boston and Skegness

Reform UK’s Richard Tice is challenging the Conservatives in their heartlands.

The area voted heavily to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum.

04.00: Birmingham Ladywood

Controversial independent Akhmed Yakoob, who has made Gaza a key electoral issue of his campaign, is challenging Labour’s Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

Yakoob, who made a video during the campaign with extremist Jewish anti-Zionist group Neturei Karta, surprised many by coming third in elections for Mayor of the West Midlands.

Earlier this year, he said in a speech: “I know now why Allah has put me in this position, it’s to challenge the Zionist regime, challenge the elites of this country and the world… We live in a world that slowly is getting controlled by these elites.”

04.00: Clacton

Nigel Farage announced his shock return to frontline politics at the very start of this election campaign.

The Essex coastal seat of Clacton was won by his former party UKIP in a by-election in 2014.

The GB News presenter is hoping to defeat the Conservatives’ Giles Watling and succeed in his eighth attempt at standing for a parliamentary seat.

04.00: Hornsey and Friern Barnet

Labour’s Catherine West is expected to comfortably win the north London seat.

04.00: Richmond and Northallerton

Results in Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency will be announced. He is expected to hold his seat, although one shock poll for the Telegraph suggested he could become Britain’s first ever prime minister to lose his seat.

04.00: Norwich North

Conservatives’ Charlotte Salomon, who is Jewish, will hope to stop the red tide in the marginal Norfolk constituency.

The seat was vacated by former treasury minister Chloe Smith. Salomon’s main rival is Labour’s Alice Macdonald.

04.00: Wirral West

Labour’s Matthew Patrick is set to be another Jewish addition to Sir Keir Starmer’s ranks in Parliament.

04.00: Bury South

Results expected in the Greater Manchester seat, which has become a lot more Jewish since 2019.

Boundary changes mean the seat takes in Kersal and Broughton Park, the most Jewish electoral ward in the north of England.

Labour’s Christian Wakeford won the seat in 2019 as a Conservative, he defected to Labour citing Boris Johnson’s conduct during Partygate.

His main rival is Arnold Saunders, the former rabbi of Higher Crumpsall and Higher Broughton Synagogue. During the campaign, Saunders faced abuse and intimidation outside a local mosque.

04.15: Holborn and St Pancras

Results in Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s seat announced. It is a safe Labour constituency and no upsets are expected.

04.30: Hampstead and Highgate

What was once Glenda Jackson’s constituency, where around 7 per cent of voters are Jewish, is likely to be comfortably won by Labour’s Tulip Siddiq.

04.30: Brighton Pavilion

Labour will hope to take the Green Party’s sole parliamentary seat. Former Green Party leader Caroline Lucas stood down from Parliament and standing for her party is former London Assembly Member Sian Berry. Labour’s Tom Gray, who is Jewish, is hoping to cause an upset.

05.00: Ely and East Cambridgeshire

Conservative Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer, who is Jewish, is anticipated to hold onto her seat.

05.00: Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Diane Abbott was, at the last minute, allowed to re-stand as Labour’s candidate for the north London constituency, which is considered one of Labour’s safest seats.

An estimated 12 per cent of voters in the constituency are Jewish. Abbott is likely to be a shoe-in.

05.00: Warrington North

Jewish Labour candidate Charlotte Nichols, first elected to Parliament in 2019, is expected to be re-elected as the MP.

05.30: All three Barnet constituencies

Finchley and Golders Green: Polls are split on how the constituency with the most Jewish voters is likely to go. Labour’s Sarah Sackman, who is Jewish, and the Conservatives’ Alex Deane are the main candidates vying to succeed Justice Minister Mike Freer as the local MP.

Rishi Sunak visited the seat on Sunday and former PMs Boris Johnson and Gordon Brown have appealed to voters in the marginal north London seat.

Hendon: In the London seat with the second largest number of Jewish voters, Labour’s David PD and the Conservatives are fighting to succeed Matthew Offord, who held the seat for the Tories since 2010 and is standing down.

Chipping Barnet: Conservative former Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers will be fighting to hold onto her seat – which has been Tory since its creation in 1974. Labour’s challenger Dan Tomlinson is an economist who works for anti-poverty charity the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and served as a councillor in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets.

06.30: Ilford North

Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting is being challenged by pro-Gaza independent candidate Leanne Mohamad.

He is expected to win the seat, which he first won in the 2015 general election, beating Jewish Conservative MP Lee Scott.

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