Labour may have underperformed in Jewish areas in 2017 election, say leading researchers

Labour may have underperformed in the five constituencies with the largest proportions of Jewish voters in the 2017 general election, according to the authors of the most comprehensive study of it so far.

The findings show "suggests some damage may already have been done" to the party's relationship with the Jewish community, "before the row intensified this summer," the authors said.

Professors Sir John Curtice, Stephen Fisher and Rob Ford, and postdoctoral researcher Patrick English looked at the five UK constituencies where, according to the 2011 census, more than ten per cent of the population is Jewish.

In these seats – Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hertsmere, and Bury South – Labour’s share of the vote was up by seven points on the previous general election, in 2015.

The findings suggest that tensions between the Jewish community and the Labour Party may have had a negative impact at the ballot box before the row over the this year over adoption of the IHRA definition of antisemitism.

Some analysis from new @philipjcowley book here - @StephenDFisher , Sir John Curtice @whatukthinks , @PME_Politics and myself take a look at evidence of distinctive voting patterns in 2017 in seats with large Jewish and Muslim communities: https://t.co/LMOvbXTszA
— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) September 28, 2018

In a BBC News article, the study authors wrote: “Relations [between Labour and the Jewish community] have been strained for some time, with an inquiry into antisemitism in the party launched in 2016.

“Last month Labour adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance's definition of antisemitism, although critics said the addition of a ‘caveat’ undermined the international definition.

“Now, a study of results at the 2017 general election suggests some damage may already have been done before the row intensified this summer.

“It appears Labour may have underperformed in the constituencies with the most Jewish people.”

In Hendon, Labour’s Mike Katz increased his party’s vote share by 4.5 per cent but this was not enough to unseat Conservative Matthew Offord, who clung on by just 1,000 votes.

Because the Jewish communities in those seats still represent a minority of voters, the researchers could not say definitively that the Labour Party underperformed in those areas, which would rule out alternative possible explanations, Prof Ford told the JC.

They also did not have any data regarding the relationship between perceptions of antisemitism within the Labour Party, and voting patterns.

Prof Fisher is associate professor in political sociology and fellow of Trinity College at the University of Oxford, Prof Ford is professor of political science at the University of Manchester and Prof Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University. Mr English is a University of Sheffield researcher.

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