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Britain must invest more to remain influential in the Middle East after Brexit, Bicom says
UK will have to 'prove itself almost a bit more... and show that it’s still a global player'
November 28, 2018 18:48
4 min read
UK will have to 'prove itself almost a bit more... and show that it’s still a global player'
November 28, 2018 18:48Britain will “inevitably have to invest more in diplomatic missions, cultural outreach, trade, aid and military capabilities” to remain an influential power in the Middle East after Brexit, a new report from Bicom has warned.
The paper, released by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre on Thursday, says that “maintaining defence spending at or above the two per cent Nato target is also critical… for signalling the UK’s continued global role, influence and capability, to US and European allies, as much as to partners in the Middle East.”
It also recommends that the UK “deepen” its co-operation with Gulf States, both in security and by seeking “a comprehensive free trade deal with the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states.”
Speaking to the JC, Bicom chief executive James Sorene agreed that there was a sense of Britain “having to prove itself almost a bit more after Brexit and show that it’s still a global player”.
“I wouldn’t underestimate the importance of [the UK] being a [UN] Security Council member,” he said.
“I think it’s three things — being a Security Council Member, a member of the G7 and also its historic role in the region. Aid spend is still extremely important.
"If you look at some of the particular problems, Syria, Yemen, the Palestinian Territories — the UK is one of the top aid investors, and that’s not going to change after Brexit.
“But I think it’s about how you shore up what you have, and that’s why really what we’re trying to do in the paper is analyse ‘what are the UK’s intere sts, what are the dilemmas, and come down with some recommendations.”
One of those recommendations is a call for an overhaul in “Middle East language skills — Farsi, Hebrew, Turkish and Kurdish, as well as Arabic”, pointing out that “only 30 per cent of FCO officers in Arabic speaking posts can speak the language adequately, compared to 64 percent of US diplomats in similar posts.”
Mr Sorene said: “Diplomats that we’ve spoken to have identified that as a real problem. Diplomacy is conducted in a way that the language is incredibly important, and if you’re working through translators and local staff, it’s just not the same.”
While the paper recommends closer ties with Gulf States including Saudi Arabia, Mr Sorene made it clear that “it’s an alliance of interests, not an alliance of values, that’s absolutely clear.
The UK will and should continue to make the case for them to continue to move more towards UK values, in terms of human rights and more political representation.”
The report also calls for the UK to maintain arms sales to Gulf States, as this “offers reassurance to Arab allies, safeguards benefits for the UK economy, enhances British influence and leverage, and avoids ceding ground to rivals like Russia.”
Mr Sorene acknowledged that there was “a dilemma” here — “that’s why we’ve been clear saying ‘you’ve got to maintain a commitment to International Law and standards’, but we’ve also got to be realistic.
“If we’re looking at the UK after Brexit, and we’re looking at jobs and trade, there is a very significant chunk of UK defence sales – I think it’s 59 percent - which go to the Middle East.
"That’s a very important market, and there are parts of the UK which are heavily reliant on those arms sales. If the UK pulled away, then someone else would just sell them.”
The paper also makes clear, Mr Sorene says, “that the UK can no longer rely on the US as the lynchpin of policy in the region… it’s got to look to local allies and others. The Trump administration may not last more than one term, but the trend was already there under Obama.”
In the wake of Donald Trump’s repudiation of the Iran deal negotiated under his predecessor, the UK, France and Germany, as part of the EU, have tried to maintain the West’s part of the deal — the lifting of sanctions in return for severe limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Mr Sorene said that ultimately, the deal “is not going to be something that’s decided in London, Paris or Berlin. I think it’s going to survive or fail in the boardrooms of the big multinationals in Europe. As they all start to pull out of Iran, that’s going to be the decider. And that’s already happening.
“I see the British, French and German diplomacy as more about trying to show Iran that they’re trying to preserve the deal. They may well not be able to, but it’s important for them to show that they’re trying.”
However, “what we’re trying to say in the paper in a way is that the UK needs to make a choice – it can’t carry on having really good relations with all the Gulf States and keeping good relations with Iran, not cracking down on Iran’s activities in the region.
“It needs to make a choice in a little bit of a clearer way.”
Clearly, as Mr Sorene pointed out, the UK’s strengthening relationships with Gulf countries would not be the same problem for Israel as it once would have been.
“If we were thinking about this years ago, and we saw that Britain was maybe going to strengthen ties with the Gulf, there would be a sort of sharp intake of breath in Jerusalem.
“It would be something that sat across the faultline in the relationship. It would be a problem.”
Now, however, “if the UK deepens even more its relations with Saudi and some of the Gulf countries, it’s part of a trend for Israel as well.
“I think what’s interesting is that if you have the UK trying really hard to keep the Iran deal going, and not being clear about what it thinks about Iran’s role in the region, then actually you end up in a situation where Israel and the Gulf States, who are allies of the UK, end up being upset with the UK as a group."
