A major rift that has broken out over October’s local elections within the Strictly Orthodox leadership means that Jerusalem’s next mayor will almost certainly not be Charedi.

On the eve of Yom Kippur, Jerusalem City Council member Moshe Lion received the blessing of Rabbi Chaim Kanyevsky, one of the most senior Lithuanian rabbis in Israel.

Mr Lion was subsequently backed by Rabbi Shalom Cohen, president of the Council of Torah Sages of the Shas party.

But both endorsements were a direct challenge to Agudath Yisrael, the Chasidic party, which is supporting the current deputy mayor Yossi Deitch to become Jerusalem’s next mayor.

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The immediate implication of the split is that both candidates are unlikely to be elected in a city where roughly a third of Jerusalem’s population is Charedi.

Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem boycott the local elections, which they see as a manifestation of the Israeli occupation, meaning that the Charedim — who turn out to vote in high numbers — can notionally dictate the election outcome.

This happened in 2003, when the community was united behind Mayor Uri Lupolianski.

But in the next two elections, various small Charedi groups broke away and denied a majority to a single candidate, allowing two successive victories for Nir Barkat, who is stepping down.

Mr Lion — who is Orthodox, but not Charedi — managed to gather most of the major Strictly Orthodox groups behind him when he last ran for mayor in 2013, aided by his close relationship with Shas leader Arye Deri.

But a breakaway Lithuanian faction declined to support him, meaning Mr Lion took only 45 per cent to Mr Barkat’s 51.

This time, the Charedi split is much more severe, with two prominent candidates representing the community and the voter base split down the middle.

Neither candidate is likely to receive more than a third of the vote, meaning the candidate most likely to win is Likud’s Zeev Elkin, currently a minister in the government.

Historically, the mainstream Strictly Orthodox community was represented solely by Agudath Yisrael, founded in Germany in 1912.

But tensions in the 1980s led to the creation of the breakaway Lithuanian Degel Ha’Torah faction, which ran separately in the 1988 Knesset election.

The two groups reconciled four years later to form the joint United Torah Judaism list for Knesset and local elections, but a host of rivalries and ideological differences remain.

These include different views on how to tackle issues such as a military draft law for yeshiva students and major building work taking place during Shabbat.

The Charedi fractures in Jerusalem could lead to a major realignment in the next Knesset election, expected in 2019, that would see the Chasidic Aguda campaign alone, while the Lithuanian Degel runs on a joint list with Sephardi Shas.