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Expect pomp, warmth and very little policy-making

Netanyahu will keep it simple for Trump when they meet today: the US president has yet to get to grips with foreign affairs

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February 15, 2017 11:19

After eight years of a tense, often frosty relationship with the previous occupant of the Oval Office, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's midday meeting today with President Donald Trump promises to be something completely different.

That will certainly apply to the optics of the visit - Mr Netanyahu will be received by a Marine guard of honour and the president is expected to come out and greet him as he arrives, rather than waiting for him inside, as Barack Obama did. It will also be true of the policies discussed in the meetings, although matters here are a lot more ambiguous.

Mr Netanyahu has a distinct advantage over other world leaders. He has met Mr Trump several times before, and senior members of both leaders' teams have longstanding, ongoing relationships.

However, the two men have never seriously discussed foreign policy, a field Mr Trump is only beginning to get to grips with. With the Trump White House getting off to a very rocky start on nearly all its policy and management issues, there are two factors are already clear: they will have agreed on most policy points in advance and there will not be any detailed announcements, more an opening up of options for future action.

The most important signal put out by the White House in advance of the meeting was a briefing on Tuesday night by a senior US official that this administration is not insisting on the two-state solution as the framework for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.

This sounds highly significant, as it constitutes a reversal of over three decades of American policy, but it does little to clarify where the Trump administration stands on the issue.

No alternative peace plan has so far been mooted and, at least officially, both Mr Netanyahu and the Palestinian Authority are still committed to two states. Mr Netanyahu has been slightly backtracking in recent weeks, talking of a "state-minus", but that is still only a variation of the same theme. On Tuesday CIA director Mike Pompeo met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, but it is not clear whether he was notified of the change in US policy.

The only notion that is being aired right now - and we might hear more about it in the wake of today's meeting - is a move to an outside-in approach to the diplomatic process. In other words, a greater involvement of Egypt, Jordan and the Sunni Gulf states in a deal with the Palestinians. This is also ambiguous, however, since the Arab states are also staunchly in favour of a two-state solution and Mr Netanyahu is more interested in engaging with them on creating a joint front against Iran, rather than the Palestinian issue.

Iran will, of course, be very high up on the agenda. Mr Netanyahu is not going to ask President Trump to tear up the nuclear deal signed by the previous administration but he is hoping that the tough words heard from the Trump team towards Iran in recent days will be followed up by deeds – namely, new sanctions. But it is unlikely there will be any detail in the official statements - just rhetoric.

There was speculation that the explosive resignation of National Security Adviser Mike Flynn on Monday was a setback for Mr Netanyahu, as his aides had been preparing the Trump meeting with General Flynn for over two months, and because Mr Flynn has been so far the most outspoken critic of Iran in the new administration. The exit of Mr Flynn, however, is not expected to be significant as there are several other anti-Iran voices in this White House and the Israeli prime minister does not lack alternative channels to Mr Trump's inner circle. His ambassador to Washington Ron Dermer was seen yesterday walking outside the White House in close conversation with the president's senior adviser, Steve Bannon.

Every word and nuance at the meeting will, of course, be watched carefully by Mr Netanyahu's coalition partners back home. That is especially true in the case of Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett, who warned that if the words "Palestinian state" are mentioned at the meeting, "the earth will shake".

Whether or not the phrase is spoken, what will have more immediate relevance is anything Mr Trump may have to say about new settlement building. Mr Netanyahu is anxious to rein in his right-wingers and avoid, at least for now, a major settlement drive and put off Mr Bennett's campaign to annex parts of the West Bank. Mr Trump will probably help him out on this in some way.

The first sign of this came over the weekend with Mr Trump saying in an interview that the new settlements were "not helpful to the peace process". This was, of course, very different from the rhetoric of previous administrations which spoke of the settlements being an "obstacle to peace" but nevertheless, it was not what the Israeli right-wing hoped to hear. It hardly needed pointing out that the interview had been to Mr Netanyahu's house paper, Israel Hayom, and that the paper's owner, Netanyahu's friend and benefactor casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, had just been in the White House for an intimate dinner with the president.

February 15, 2017 11:19

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