In the space of a month, Benjamin Netanyahu has changed tack: first, he was telling his cabinet that the next general election would happen on schedule at the end of 2019; now, he is warning it is just around the corner.
Ostensibly, the reason for dissolving the Knesset when it returns from its long summer and High Holidays recess in October would be the Strictly Orthodox parties, which are refusing to pass a new military draft law before a High Court deadline in November.
The real story is that the Prime Minister is simply undecided on an election date. Early, mid, or late 2019 — which would be best for him?
Mr Netanyahu believes that whenever it is held he will win, that Likud will emerge as the largest party and that the right-wing-religious bloc of parties will have a majority in the new Knesset.
The polls bear that projection out, but he wants more. Both the size of the coalition’s majority and Likud’s relative size within it are important too.
A handful of seats either way spell the difference between a comfortable term in office or a daily struggle where each coalition partner gets to dictate terms.
May was Mr Netanyahu’s best month as prime minister: Donald Trump tore up the Iran nuclear deal and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, while Vladimir Putin turned a blind eye to Israel destroying Iranian bases in Syria. He was expected to announce early elections any moment.
But the summer months brought a barrage of airborne arson attacks from Gaza and increasing dissatisfaction with his handling of the situation, pushing Likud’s ratings down.
The biggest dilemma for the Prime Minister, however, is how to win an election with the threat of criminal indictments hovering over him. Conventional wisdom is that he would prefer to preempt the Attorney General’s expected decision to press charges against him and not have the campaign overshadowed by his own legal troubles.
But there is a view among his advisers that the Prime Minister cannot control the timing of indictments and it would be better to go to the polls later.
If Mr Netanyahu wins an election held after the Attorney General’s decision, he will be able to claim he has received a national mandate despite the indictments. To the legal and political demands for his resignation he will respond that the public has rejected the charges.
In this respect, the draft law crisis is a useful one. Mr Netanyahu has solved dozens of similar dispute with his old Strictly Orthodox allies and he can certainly solve this one. Whether or not he chooses to do so in the next few weeks will hinge on his legal and political survival strategy.
