When supporters of the Republican Jewish Coalition gathered at a Washington reception earlier this month to celebrate their party formally taking control of the US Congress, they could barely have been in higher spirits.
That morning, Gallup had released a poll showing that nearly one in three US Jews now identify as Republicans, up seven per cent since 2008, while the number calling themselves Democrats had slid by 10 points to 61 per cent.
The poll confirmed the trend of both the 2012 and 2014 elections: that while Jews continue to lean heavily towards the Democrats, the Republicans are slowly gaining ground.
In 2014, 33 per cent of Jews backed the Republicans in the mid-term elections (since 1982 the average Republican share of the Jewish vote has been just under a quarter), while Barack Obama's Republican opponent in 2012, Mitt Romney, managed to attract the support of one-third of Jews - quite comfortably his party's best performance in 25 years and not far short of the 39 per cent won by Ronald Reagan in his landslide win in 1980.
The celebrations were not unalloyed, however. Last year, Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, was unseated in a primary challenge, depriving Jewish Republicans of their most high-profile member of Congress. Mr Cantor's defeat makes newly elected New York congressman Lee Zeldin once again the sole Jewish Republican on Capitol Hill. By contrast, there are 30 Jewish Democrats in Congress, including Senator Charles Schumer, the third-ranking Senate Democrat, and Representative Debbie Wasserman Shultz, the chair of the Democratic National Committee.
Go figure
30%
Proportion of US Jews who identify as Republican
23%
Proportion of US Jews who backed the Republicans in 2008
Aside from Kentucky's isolationist Senator, Rand Paul, each of the Republicans' potential 2016 contenders are solidly pro-Israel and keen to woo Jewish voters who, though only constituting two per cent of the electorate, make up a higher percentage in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Nevada. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, former Texas governor Rick Perry and Florida senator Marco Rubio have all been looking to burnish their foreign policy credentials by visiting Israel. Another White House hopeful, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, is reported to be speaking at a number of holiday resorts that cater to religious Jews over Passover.
But while Republicans believe Mr Obama's alleged lukewarm support for Israel has cost him support among some Jewish voters, the president won't be on the ballot paper next November. Moreover, not only was the Democrat frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, vocal in her support for Israel during Operation Protective Edge, so too were leading liberals such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. The then-Democrat controlled Senate unanimously passed a resolution backing Israel.
Nonetheless, warn Shibley Telhami and Katayoun Kishi of the University of Maryland, "while Republican political leaders are in harmony with their grassroots, when it comes to their policy stances toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Democrat leaders are not". Polling they published last month shows that while 77 per cent of Democrats believe the US should maintain neutrality on the issue, less than half of Republicans think it should. Moreover, while 82 per cent of Democrats wanted to see the US either abstain or vote in favour of a UN resolution supporting Palestinian statehood, only 52 per cent of Republicans backed such a stance.
The results are partly explained by the attitudes of key elements of each party's electoral coalition: nearly two-thirds of evangelical Christians, who vote overwhelmingly Republican, want to see the US lean towards Israel. Democrat-voting women and African-Americans prefer US neutrality. And the ability of Democrat leaders to hold the pro-Israel line looks set to come under further strain in the future. Hispanics and young people - two key and growing elements of the Democrat base - are both more sympathetic towards the Palestinians, and favour taking a tougher line with Israel over issues such as settlement-building than other Americans.
The Republicans should, though, beware too crude an approach. The Jewish vote is hardly monolithic: reflecting the wider population, Jews who are religious, male and without a college degree are more likely to vote Republican than those who are not. On issues such as inequality, abortion, immigration and gay marriage, the attitudes of Jewish voters align more closely with those of the Democratic party. And, on Israel, too, the picture is hardly clear-cut: 60 per cent of Jewish Americans support the US either abstaining or voting for Palestinian statehood at the UN.
