Nobody knows what’s going on: Happy New Year

By Orlando Radice
January 5, 2012

If you have been following reports about the state of the British economy over the past month or so, you could be forgiven for believing that even if we are not already in a recession, the UK is lurching towards a double dip.

But some snapshot figures about the state of economic play, out today, tell another story. The latest CIPS/Markit survey of the services sector – which makes up 75 per cent of the UK economy – showed a jump to 54 in December, up from 52.1 in November. Readings above 50 indicate growth.

In other words, things moved fairly strongly in the opposite direction to the one expected.

Of course, this is a snapshot and does not tell us anything for sure – a disorderly Eurozone collapse would be calamitous for the UK, if not the world – but it does suggest that nobody really knows what is going on.

And that is a comforting thought, given the sheer volume of doom that has been pouring out of the UK press of late. Savour it: they haven’t a clue. Happy New Year.


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