Israel Elections Wrongfoot Usual Suspect Lefties


By Jonathan Hoffman
January 22, 2013
Share

http://cifwatch.com/2013/01/22/the-guardian-gets-it-wrong-exit-polls-ind...

And remember Jonathan Freedland's warning in the JC last Friday to those of us who opposed the Board's Oxfam tie-up:

On Tuesday Israel is set to elect what many believe will be the most right-wing government in the Jewish state’s history. That’s not just the view of usual suspect lefties. .... there are about to be many, many people opposed to the Israeli government... If we decide that we can only have contact with those who support the Israeli government ... we are about to become very lonely. For we will find that we have no one to talk to but ourselves.

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/columnists/98741/this-about-more...

Looks like Mr Freedland was "crying wolf"...

What a shame the "usual suspect lefties" will not be able to say "I told you so!".

But I'm sure that won't stop them finding some other reason to vilify Israel.

COMMENTS

happygoldfish

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 09:33

Rate this:

2 points
latest figures (8.51am), from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21156621

  • Likud-Beitenu: 31 seats
  • Yesh Atid: 19
  • Labour: 15
  • Shas: 11
  • Habayit Hayehudi: 11
  • United Torah Judaism: 7
  • Hatnua: 6
  • Meretz: 6
  • United Arab List-Taal: 5
  • Hadash: 4
  • Balad: 3
  • Kadima: 2

Based on 99.8% of votes counted


Rich Armbach

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 09:34

Rate this:

-1 points

Well it looks like wimps latest BOD fiasco has equipped him with enough new vendettas to last him for decades.

We have no idea what the make up of the next Israeli govt is going to be and if anyone got anything wrong it wasn't Jonathan Freedland it was the Israeli pollsters. Do make a big effort to be more grown up about these things.

You could make a start by not sending us for analysis to the racist cesspit comic Cifwatch.


joemillis1959

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 09:44

Rate this:

0 points

The far right (Likud and Gordon Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi) can still set up a government with the fundamentalists (Shas, United Torah Judaism) with Lapid and what's left of Kadima serving as the fig-leaf. That's an 81-seat coalition. Big enough for Netanyahu to continue doing what he likes doing best - nothing.


Gideon Smith

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 09:44

Rate this:

3 points

Jonathan - what a strange blog post...

I think the Harriet Sherwood's view may well turn out to be prescient. Clearly, the jury is still out, but if Bibi does cobble together a 'broad' coalition, most equations have Habayit Hayehudi in the mix, in which case this will be "a more hawkish and pro-settler government" (even if Lapid does join).

I was certainly encouraged by the results myself (being a tad more dovish than your good self) and the success of 'new politics' vs old, but talk of the right-bloc losing ground to the left-bloc is simply not applicable in Israel, where the centre left remains so fragmented and the 12 seats of the Arab parties do not form a natural alliance with the left in any event.

Either way, the tone of your blog post is very strange and simply seems to be an attempt to bash Jonathan Freedland - a clear Zionist and friend of Israel.


joemillis1959

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 09:48

Rate this:

0 points

Gideon

Either way, the tone of your blog post is very strange and simply seems to be an attempt to bash Jonathan Freedland - a clear Zionist and friend of Israel.

You da man, Gideon


Mary in Brighton

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 12:59

Rate this:

0 points

You all should be gentle with Jonathan. He is hurting.


joemillis1959

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 14:34

Rate this:

0 points

Oh stop taking yourselves so seriously.

Cop an ear-full of this beautiful rendition of a prayer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HCm51C3krc


happygoldfish

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 14:59

Rate this:

0 points


Advis3r

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 15:44

Rate this:

1 point

Goldfish - A few amendments

Labour and Meretz under their present respective leaderships are left wing not centre-left.

I suggest you compare their platforms with Yesh Atid which while supporting a two state solution calls for the retention of the main settlement blocs and for an undivided Jerusalem which is why a number of Likud/Habayit Hayehudi supporters who I know and who do not support their more strident platforms voted for Lapid instead.

Netanyanhu could well form a government with Lapid and I think he will. That will give him 50 MKs. Out of the rest he will consider Habait Hayehudi but they will have to tone down their demands considerably to be included. If they do that will be 61. Then I suggest he would not include either Meretz or Labour on ideological grounds.
That leaves Zippy Livni and Mofaz both of whom I think he will invite just to placate the Americans who adore Livni. Livni will probably be FM. That will give him 69 and he can then tell the Haredim to get ready to serve in the Army/Sherut Leumi/whatever. I expect an exodus to New York London and Manchester - so get ready!

Remember you read it here first!


Jonathan Hoffman

Wed, 01/23/2013 - 17:55

Rate this:

-1 points

http://rubinreports.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/israels-election-preliminary-...

No Gideon. The story is not a 'lurch to the Right' as the lefty European Freedlandite Guardianista scaremongers warned. It's a move into the Centre. "Ha-Bayit ha-Yahudi Party received only about 10 percent of the vote which is usual for that sector. In comparison about one-third went to liberal or moderate left parties, and about one-quarter to centrist parties." Yesh Atid and Hatnua are both Centrist. Bennett's party may well splinter - perhaps soon - if as seems likely he insists on joining the coalition with Yesh Atid and Hatnua.


zaheerayin

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:04

Rate this:

1 point

Ohhhh lookie! Jonathan's got a new Facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Grow-Concerned/316260135151583


Jonathan Hoffman

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:46

Rate this:

-1 points

Nice chart..


joemillis1959

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 13:29

Rate this:

0 points

Jonathan, why should everything in Israel be seen through the prism of an old fashioned left-right, hawk-dove paradigm?

The vote for Yesh Atid is a move to Nimby-ism. The middle class just want to be able to be left alone and continue to drive their SUVs. And they don't want undesirables (anyone who's not them, in other words) in their neighbourhoods (gilded ghettos).

As Allison Kaplan Sommer wrote in Haaretz: "Israelis sent a message that they want hope and change. They just can't figure out where to find it."


joemillis1959

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 13:32

Rate this:

0 points

Ever so slight amendment to the amendment of Mr/Ms Goldfish's chart.

Labour and Meretz are part of the centre, as neither is hardly "left". The only real left wing party (that is non-sectoral - Jewish-Muslim-Christian-etc and social-democratic) in Israel is Hadash.

Yesh Atid is classic centre right - capitalist, low tax-demanding, NIMBY-ist. Very "One-Nation" Tory, in fact.

Likud and Habayit Hayehudi are ultra right wingers in favour of ethnic entitlement and superiority. Their mirror image are Balad and United Arab List-Taal, who demand the same but for different ethnics.

The Orthodox are indeed Orthodox fundamentalists who care only for their immediate flock. That means money for yeshivot, military and other service exemptions, and subsidised housing for their families, but no one else.


joemillis1959

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 14:42

Rate this:

0 points

A taste of Yair Lapid from Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times

Tom Friedman and I interviewed Yair Lapid last month, when he was polling in the single digits. Here are a few quotes:
On his personal ambitions: “If you're going into politics, you have to have a concept of yourself at the top of the pyramid. But I’m not obsessed with it right now.”
On Netanyahu's Nov. 30 announcement re building in E1: "It’s a terrible decision. You don’t poke the Americans in the eye the day after they’ve done their best to help you.”
On Israeli students placing 89th, behind Senegal and Zambia, in an international math test: “The good news is the Israeli students have no idea where Zambia is."


StevenKalka

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 14:51

Rate this:

0 points

[As Allison Kaplan Sommer wrote in Haaretz: "Israelis sent a message that they want hope and change. They just can't figure out where to find it."]

I had to laugh at the phrase "hope and change" because it was used by the Obama campaign 4 years ago and mocked by his detractors. We've had commentators say "How's that hope and change working out for ya?".

It must be pretty catchy.


happygoldfish

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 15:44

Rate this:

1 point
here is the final result, from the official central elections committee website, at http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/eng/list/results_eng.aspx
List of candidates
Percentage of
valid votes
Number of valid votes
Likud Yisrael Beitenu 23.32% 880,972
 
Yesh Atid 14.32% 541,033
 
Israel Labor Party 11.39% 430,305
 
Habayit Hayehudi 9.11% 344,028
 
Shas 8.74% 330,359
 
United Torah Judaism 5.18% 195,577
 
Hatenua 4.99% 188,425
 
Meretz 4.54% 171,660
 
United Arab List 3.65% 137,983
 
Hadash 3.00% 113,336
 
National Democratic Assembly 2.56% 96,788
 
Kadima 2.09% 79,064
 
Otzma Leyisrael 1.76% 66,592
 
Am Shalem 1.20% 45,506
 
Green Leaf - Liberal List 1.14% 43,158
 
Koach Lehashpia 0.74% 27,939
 
Eretz Hadasha 0.74% 27,933
 
Hayisraelim 0.50% 18,953
 
The Green and Young 0.22% 8,135
 
Dor Bonei Haaretz 0.16% 6,012
 
Chaim Bekavod 0.10% 3,622
 
Da-am - Workers Party 0.09% 3,587
 
We Are Brothers 0.08% 2,872
 
Tzedek Hevrati 0.08% 2,871
 
The Pirates 0.07% 2,371
 
Kulanu Haverim 0.06% 2,184
 
The Economics Party 0.05% 1,964
 
Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit 0.04% 1,557
 
Light 0.03% 1021
 
Brit Olam 0.02% 756
 
Hatikva Leshinui 0.02% 642
 
Moreshet Avot 0.01% 525
 
of course, this gives only the percentages, not the seats, but according to haaretz, the table of seats above (click here) needs correcting in only two places:

habayit hayehudi has increased from 11 to 12 seats

united arab list - ta'al has correspondingly dropped one seat, from 5 to 4 seats

POST A COMMENT

You must be logged in to post a comment.

LATEST COMMENTS