Egypt - the six phases of the revolution

Most, if not all, expert commentators tell us that no one knows how events will unfold in Egypt. Whilst this is true, since no one can know how the future will turn out, I think they are derelict in their duty by not giving us their informed views. Obviously, they fear they may be wrong

However, for an opinionated individual like myself, possibly being wrong has never been a problem, so let me give you my take on what will happen.

The Egyptian political realignment is now entering its second phase. The first phase initiated by the young, face-bookers has ended with Mubarak's resignation. Now the strong horse is the army which has played a skilful hand. It is likely to remain in power until elections in September when phase 3 commences. Ideally it would like to stay there longer (forever) but Obama will threaten to reduce military aid if they do. Whoever gets elected will be dependent on the support of the Muslim Brotherhood to stay in power. It is possible, but unlikely that the Brotherhood will achieve an overall majority since the army is against them and they have no charismatic leader. But so far neither does any other political entity, all of which are much weaker than the Brotherhood. Of course this will change between now and September directed by the military from behind the scenes. Our news reporters will make much of any political activity and gatherings but it is unlikely that a single strong democratic party can be brought together to rival the brotherhood. Following the election, phase 4 will see the creeping Islamisation of Egypt and further distancing from the West following the pattern set by Turkey. Phase 5 will witness the Brotherhood coming to power and the reneging on the peace treaty with Israel. Phase 6 will be minor war (legal, propaganda and physical) possibly leading to all out hostilities.