The demographic lie


By Advis3r
April 3, 2011
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Moshe Dann writes that opponents of Israel's legal and historical rights to Judea and Samaria – by definition, "the Left" (which includes some misguided bloggers on this website) contend that Israel faces a "demographic crisis;" the Arab population between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River will soon outnumber that of the Jews,
In fact, using the demographic argument, therefore, Israel should annex Area C.
and the nature of the State of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state is in danger, say Israeli demographers Sofer and DelaPergola.. This perspective is politically motivated in order to distort the picture.
(To see interview with deputy head of the Judea and Samria Council on the accuracy of these figures and the same demographers' past predictions, click here http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/141495 .)
Looking at the entire population between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, using the demographic argument, the situation looks grim, with Jews and Arabs almost equal. When the areas are seen as discrete, however, the perspective changes, and the alleged demographic threat dissipates.
The fact is that today, nearly all non-Israeli Palestinians living in Judea, Samaria and Gaza are under the PA, with PA and/or Jordanian passports. The Gaza Strip, under Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, is a separate entity, with its own army and administration, supported by the PA, but opposed to its controlling group, Fatah. "The occupation," therefore, at least that since 1967, refers to territory, not people.
According to the Oslo Accords, Judea and Samaria was divided into three regions: A (under total PA control); B (under PA civilian control); C (under Israeli control). No Jews reside in areas A and B (comprising an estimated million-and-a-half residents); all Jewish communities/settlements (over 300,000 Jews) are in area C, along with about a few tens of thousands of Arab Palestinians (there are no accurate figures). In addition, over 200,000 Jews live in new neighbourhoods of Jerusalem established after 1967; these areas have already been virtually annexed.
If the entire area of Judea and Samaria is considered as a single unit, the demographic argument looks overwhelming. But, when the areas are separated – viewing area C alone, as distinctly Jewish – the perspective is quite different; there is no demographic threat.
In fact, using the demographic argument, therefore, Israel should annex Area C.
The "demographic argument" was used to convince former-PM Yitzhak Rabin to agree to the Oslo Accords, and was promoted by the dominant Left-wing media, former-PMs Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, Israeli ministers and politicians, and PM Netanyahu. There's only one problem: it's a myth, part of a campaign to destroy the settlement movement; it has been thoroughly refuted. http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/perspectives15.pdf
If demographics is so important, we should be concerned about large concentrations of Arabs residing in pre-1967 Israel (many of whom consider themselves Palestinians and oppose Israel's existence) – primarily in the Negev and the Galilee.
Using demographic arguments to promote the withdrawal of Jewish communities from Judea, Samaria, and eastern Jerusalem, and creating another Arab Palestinian state, may temporarily resolve the false charge of "occupation" because Jewish refugees are a non-issue, but it will not alleviate Israel's problems with its Arab communities, will exacerbate social tensions in Israel, and will likely lead to Israel's demise.
The argument that withdrawal is necessary to "preserve Israel's Jewish character," moreover, is vague, and contradicts their support for including of hundreds of thousands of non-Jews, Arabs, Africans, and others seeking to live in Israel. Concern for the humanitarian rights of illegal immigrants seems to trump maintaining Israel's Jewish identity.
Moreover, an estimated several hundreds of thousands of immigrants from FSU who are not Jewish, many with no connection to Judaism, were given citizenship. Although many of them serve in the IDF and have applied for conversion, this is a controversial issue between those who expect sincere commitment according to Jewish law, and those who demand less, or none at all.
In other words, demographic arguments, including questions like, "Who Is A Jew?" and "What is Israelism?" are complicated societal issues which cannot be resolved, or understood by simplistic notions, manipulating statistics, and hyping scare tactics.
There is no crisis, nor urgency to abandon Judea and Shomron in order to save the State of Israel. It's political bluff. In fact, given realistic assessments of the threat a Palestinian state poses to Israel, the most reasonable solution is to leave things as they are.
For those who hear a "ticking demographic time-bomb," I would recommend a good psychiatrist.

COMMENTS

Joe Millis

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 09:14

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Well, Advis3r, we'll see in a few years time what happens when the non-Jewish majority wakes up and calls for equal political rights in the one state between the River and the Sea. Still not sure what you propose doing with the 3.5 million Palestinians on the West Bank. They are still under military occupation.
And what with Israel now facing net emigration from the country, mainly by educated professionals who ironically are seeking documentation from their Grandparents for the European countries they fled, the backbone of tax income, they'll be even fewer Jews there.
It's no use moaning about the Negev and Galil now, since the resources that could have been spent there, were wasted on the toxic settlement enterprise.
So what's your vision for Israel? A theocracy? An apartheid state? Do you really want to create a divided Jewish world, where most Jews don't support Israel?


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 09:42

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We are not worrying Joe
http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=214979
We will be the majority - how do you like them apples? So if we are does that mean there will be a theocracy I think not at all. Perhaps all that will change in practice is that the Sabbath and kashrut observance laws which are already part of the laws of the State of Israel will actually be enforced as enacted. If so you won't support Israel - well you don't support it now so will that make any diference? Yes continue your incitement calling my way of life toxic it only shows you up for the baseless hater you are. You demand I show tolerance but have no problem displaying your complete intolerance.


Watchful Iris (not verified)

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 10:08

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LOL


Joe Millis

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 10:36

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How will you be the majority, Advis3r? Two-state solution? Expulsions? That's the only way to maintain a Jewish majority and Israel.
The settlements are toxic, their residents are pawns because of their idealism.
How do you like those apples?


Watchful Iris (not verified)

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 10:43

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What's comical is the complete denial that Israel is on its way to becoming a theocracy, instead of a democracy. But I suppose Israel wouldn't qualify for the world's economic support if it accepted that reality, now, would it? If it walks like a duck.......


JonOtway

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 11:31

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Bibi for one thinks there is more then plenty to worry about on the demographic issue.And, of course he is well advised to do so. The delusion that they can have the land but not the people is the thing that will kill Israel as a democratic Jewish state.

Don't, forget the quacks as well,Iris.


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:10

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Watchful I have answered your latest gibe - try somethinjg else you are not doing really well with this one. BTW supposing Israel was you say a theocracy which allows all religions freedom of religion or even none what is your problem if there is a Supreme Court safeguarding whatever freedoms you believe you should have, as it does in Israel?
Watchful Iris/Mr Otway in any event why are you so excised over this do you live in Israel? Are you personally affected?


Watchful Iris (not verified)

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:15

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Oh dear....I must have hit a nerve.


JonOtway

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:20

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You expend an awful lot of energy typing at astonishing length to people, the great majority of whom, are not personally affected Advisr.Clearly you have a great deal of time on your hands.A life in the illegally occupuied territories seems to be a very leisurely one.

Are you familiar with the expression less is more ?


Joe Millis

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:20

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Supreme Court? That can be abolished or its incumbents replaced by relatives of the rabbis. That's the fear from a theocracy and the University of Haifa study shows that that is probably not far off.


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:45

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Watchful Iris you wished!

Otoway - di-ffi-cul-ty in un-der-stand-ing or read-ing words of more than one syll-able. Is that bett-er? Where I am and what I do con-cerns you? Thanks for the inter-est.


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:46

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Joe Millis - that's democracy for you.


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:46

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Joe Millis - that's democracy for you.


Joe Millis

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:51

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Hmmm...I won't mention another type of regime that came to power democratically about 80 years ago. Democratic means adhering to democracy even when in power, not using it to do away with it once its been abused.


Advis3r

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:07

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Ah Joe you mean like Hamas? I never took you for a prophet but there again I stand to be corrected you obviously have it on good authority that if the day came that a Government of Israel was elected where the majority were torah observant it would abolish democracy. However much could be accomplished While we are waiting for demography to work its magic if the Palestinians replaced the democratically elected Hamas regime in Gaza and generally dismanteld the terrorist infrastructure - you know like peace.


Joe Millis

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:13

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Indeed, like Hamas. And I was at the big Shas-Aguda demo in Gan Ha'atzmaut in 1999, when all the speakers said that they would abolish the Supreme Court. So we must take these rabbis at their word.


JonOtway

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:26

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Is this the same Supreme Court the IDF ignores ? As if Israel is really run by a military Junta ?

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