Tunisian dominoes


By Geoffrey Paul
January 16, 2011
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I have no doubt that Israeli military and political think tanks are hard at work trying to assess the outcome of events in Tunisia on such vulnerable neighbours as Jordan and Egypt and, within the same zone of influence, Libya and Algeria. There is no question at all that changes of regime in either Jordan or Egypt - unlikely immediately given the strength of their internal security forces - would have a major impact on Israel (and no less the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza). There are some fanciful soothsayers in Israel who see the monarchy in Jordan being overthrown by the country’s Palestinian majority who will then create their Palestinian state which will absorb their brothers and sisters in the West Bank and Gaza and leave Israel within its present borders. That is to presume the Jordanian Palestinians are more sympathetic to Fatah than Hamas. There is absolutely no justification for this. None at all. And, in Egypt, if the Mubarak dynasty is to be brought to an end, by whatever means, it is likely to be followed by - if not a regime dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood - a strongly Islamist coalition. The two signed peace agreements Israel has - with Jordan and with Egypt - will be worthless given the overthrow of the existing regimes and a whole new ballgame will be signalled in the Middle East. Tunisia was the first domino. Who will predict the last?

COMMENTS

newsmax

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:09

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-5 points

One can only hope that the 'domino effect’ is realised and that democracy is permitted a foothold in the ME. Whilst the West chastises the Arab world for its lack of Democracy it keeps silent about the fact that all the tyrants and despots are propped up by the West in the mistaken belief that the despots will halt the islamists and 'terrorists'
Mubarak has to be next. If the Arab street doesn’t oust him then the reaper will.
Democracy in Egypt would be good for the region (an islamist regime would not) and hopefully for the Palestinians. Once the democratic principle is applied to the ME then the people will be able to voice their concern about the plight of the Palestinians more freely.


mattpryor

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:42

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2 points

I'm sick of hearing this grievance that these despots are "propped up" by the so-called-west. How quickly people forget the fact that if it weren't for the "west" all of these countries would still be rotting under Ottoman rule - including Tunisia. And if it weren't for Britain and our allies they'd all be living under Nazi rule. How about a bit of acknowledgement for that? But no, it's all about blaming the west. If all it took to depose the dictatorship in Tunisia was a few riots why didn't they do it 10 years ago? I suppose that's our fault too.

the people will be able to voice their concern about the plight of the Palestinians more freely

This is the one issue that people are allowed to speak freely about! The dictators like it that way because it distracts people from their own incompetence.


jose (not verified)

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:31

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4 points

The dictators are propped up by their own people, as we could see with the 'Palestinians': when they got a chance to build a democracy, they voted for the tyrants that destroyed all hope of peace in the Middle East.

Before Mubarak is kicked out of power (probably by natural attrition), one need to ask whether a next and worse tyrant is not ready to pop up. In Egypt, there is such a potential threat, and it is the Muslim Brotherhood organisation, the one that killed Sadate...
On the other hand, we have a large choice of tyrants and tyrant supporters to get rid of first:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon
- HAMAS in Gaza
- PLO in Judea Samaria
- Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs' regime in Iran
- Assad's regime in Syria
- Erdogan in Turkey
- Saud family in Saudi Arabia
- I don't know who in Yemen
- Al Bashir in Sudan
- Ghadaffi in Lybia

Maybe, when we get rid of all these Muslim tyrants, killer of their own people and others', maybe we get some peace in the Middle East.
Good luck to Tunisia! But I'm very skeptic about the present process.


suzanna

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:55

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-3 points

Didn't the people of Gaza vote for Hamas at which point the noose was put round their collective neck by Israel?

If democracy is the desired tendency then the outcome must be respected. One can't punish an entire people because the outcome wasn't according to your wishes.

Also, Erdagon was freely elected.


Yoni1

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:57

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2 points

So was Hitler, idiot.


Yoni1

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:58

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2 points

"One can only hope that the 'domino effect’ is realised and that democracy is permitted a foothold in the ME"

It's called Israel and it's been there for nearly 63 years, moron.


Yoni1

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:00

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2 points

"But no, it's all about blaming the west"

Moslems would have no purpose in life if they didn't whine and blame everyone else and pretend to be 'victims'. What a pathetic excuse for a 'culture'.


suzanna

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:09

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-1 points

Moslems would have no purpose in life if they didn't whine and blame everyone else and pretend to be 'victims'. What a pathetic excuse for a 'culture'

Is that all Muslims?

Isn't that a generalisation?


mattpryor

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:45

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1 point

Is that all Muslims?

No, just the ones that make their views public. Who knows what the rest of them think, the left do a pretty good job of silencing them.

However I was encouraged by the turnout of hundreds of Muslims in Egypt who held vigil over Coptic churches.

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