 | By Jonathan Hoffman
May 9, 2010 | Share |
After the inconclusive election, a live issue in the UK is Proportional Representation (PR). The LibDems are pushing hard for concessions from the Conservatives as a condition for supporting them in a new government. Gordon Brown of Labour - who constitutionally remains Prime Minister until David Cameron goes to the Queen to tell her he can form a government - has reportedly offered the LibDems immediate legislation to introduce PR.
The first point to appreciate about PR is that there are many different forms of it, from the least radical to the most radical. The least radical is AV - Alternative Vote - which is what former Home Secretary Alan Johnson was pushing before the election. This is simply the ranking of choices within a single member constituency. After the votes are counted, if no candidate gets 50%+ of first preference votes, the bottom candidate is eliminated and her/his second preferences redistributed to the other candidates. This process continues until one candidate reaches 50%. In Hampstead and Kilburn for example, where I was on Thursday, this may well have led to the election of the third-placed LibDem rather than the Labour candidate, who won by 42 votes from the Conservative (the winner got 32.8%, the Conservative came second with 32.7% and the LibDem third, 31.2%). It seems fair to assume that most Labour voters, and many Conservative ones, would have put the LibDem in second place.
The most radical form of PR is 'closed party list' where the parties put their candidates in order and the number elected reflects the national vote. For Thursday's election this would give the Conservatives 36.1%, Labour 29% and the LibDems 23% of the seats (assuming votes were the same under PR as under 'first past the post' (FPP) - which of course they would not be). There is always a threshold minimum of votes a party has to achieve before it gets a seat. Often this is 5% - so no small Party would have achieved representation on Thursday's results (though again the votes would not have been the same as under FPP). In Israel it's 2% which explains why most Israelis cannot understand those in the UK who want change.
As the UK political constellation stands at present, radical PR would ensure the Conservatives are in permanent opposition to a leftist Labour/LibDem majority. That's why Gordon Brown had his 'deathbed conversion' to PR and is offering it to the LibDems from his bunker in Downing Street. It's also why David Cameron will go no further than to offer an 'all-party commission' to study the voting system, with possibly the mandate to make recommendations for a referendum.
For the vast majority of Jews in the UK, radical PR would be unwelcome to say the least. Just look at EDM 502, opposing the closing of the Universal Jurisdiction anomaly exploited by the Israel-bashers. Out of the 145 signatories, 139 were from Labour, the LibDems and their small party supporters. And support for the BNP would rise. Those who did not vote for the BNP on Thursday (because under FPP it is a 'wasted vote') would be able to vote for them in the hope that it would drive their support from 1.9% up to 5%. Remember that under radical forms of PR, the BNP won two European Parliament seats and one London Assembly seat (STV for the European elections, d'Hondt for the Assembly).
My prediction? The statesmanlike generalities from Clegg and Cameron will not last. There are huge differences between them - on Europe, on PR, on the timing and method of deficit cutting and on the appropriate size of government. Before the end of the year there will be a second election which will give the Conservatives an overall majority. There are many parallels with 1974 - except that then it was the incumbent, Ted Heath, who formed the short-lived first government, not Harold Wilson, the party leader who won the most seats and went on to win the second election decisively.
Yvetta
9 May, 2010 - 10:27
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I agree that PR would have a deleterious effect.
I also think a Cameron-Clegg pact would be shortlived - and note that many pundits are predicting another election on 14th October!
AV is the Australian system.
There was an amusing piece in Friday's Sun, conerning the "squatter" presently keeping the "rightful tenant" from Number Ten!